Will there be a War between Israel and Iran ? - Trump Era

Washington Post: Reports " How Trump’s Iran deal decision may lead to war "

Lets Get Real:

After President Trump withdrew from the Obama/Iran deal the Tehran Regime used their presence in Syria to bomb Israeli defence structures in the Golan Heights, Israel of course has countered such an attack, the question is what is next.   One can argue that Iran will not push to far, as the Trump Oval unlike the Obama Oval will allow Israel to strike in Syria and Iran if needed.  The hard liners in Tehran will want to show that even with the Obama/Iran alive as long as it supported by the EU that it will follow through with tough action, then one can expect low level attacks from Iran on the border between Syria and Israel.  Of course if Iran goes down the nuclear road then ALL BETS are off, the Israeli Government will not allow Iran to get the bomb.  Tehran will have learnt from North Korea, get a nuke and the US will do a deal, let's hope President Trump does not give the store away when it comes to North Korea, the devil is in the details. 

Trump on Obama - Trump Era

Guardian: Reports " The anti-Obama: Trump's drive to destroy his predecessor's legacy...From the Iran deal to TPP to climate change, ‘the whole thing that animates and unites his policy views is antipathy towards Obama’  "

Lets Get Real:

It was clear before the 2016 campaign that President Trump had no time for President Barack Obama, the former President made Trump the but of his jokes at a Washington Dinner for the press.  It can be postulated that since then POTUS has wanted to take down Obama, by getting rid of his legacy.   All Presidents want to be different from the man than held the office before, each President wants a legacy,  LBJ left the Great Society, Nixon had the silent majority, Reagan finished off the Cold War and helped in the downfall of the USSR. Bush 41 had the Gulf War and the actual end of the USSR, Bill Clinton had a great economy, Bush 43 had Iraq and the near downfall of the economy, Obama had ObamaCare and the Iran Deal, Trump is the reverse of Obama, he has aborted ObamaCare, he has withdrawn the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, negated the Iran deal, and it only his 2nd year.  The Trump Oval has a Summit with North Korea in a few weeks, that will be historic, even Obama could not manage that, Trump could become a historic Presidency, not quite Reagan, but pretty close. 

Customs Partnership - Update 2 - Post Brexit

Daily Mail: Reports " Prime Minister orders David Davis to find third way on customs deal amid Cabinet deadlock over future EU arrangements  "

Lets Get Real:

The PM understands that for her to remain as PM she needs the support of the Hard Brexit MPs, if she upsets them then she could be out, at the end of the day it is about numbers in the House of Commons.  There are more Hard Brexit MPs than there are hard remainers, but if you combine the rebel hard remainers and the Labour Party you would have a majority for keeping the UK in the EU Customs Union and the Single Market.   The problem is that Jeremy Corbyn does not want to remain in the Single Market as it would restrict his action if he becomes PM.   Thus problems for Labour and the Conservative Party.   There are going to be close votes in the House of Commons. 

The Custom Partnership Debate - Update - Post Brexit

BBC News: Reports " Theresa May has divided her top team of ministers into two working groups to hammer out their differences on Brexit. "

Lets Get Real:

One can postulate that this move by the PM  to get the Cabinet to resolve this problem, the PM wants the Customs Partnership but can not get a majority of the sub Cabinet to agree to the plan.   The PM should be having talks with the rest of the Cabinet in attempt to get allies and move the Cabinet to her choice for the Post Brexit trading links with the EU.   The Customs Partnership and the Single Market is the best choice for the trading links with the EU after Brexit, it would keep the UK in the Customs Union, that is free trade with the EU and the Single Market, that would prevent a PM Corbyn from taking over large sectors of the economy should Labour win the next general election.  Let's hope the PM has the strategy to win the Cabinet and the House of Commons.

The Left on Trump's New Sanctions on Iran - Update 2 - Trump Era

The New York Times: Has the following Editorial on the President Trump's withdrawal from the Obama/Iran Deal, " his decision, announced on Tuesday, will allow Iran to resume a robust nuclear program, sour relations with close European allies, erode America’s credibility, lay conditions for a possible wider war in the Middle East and make it harder to reach a sound agreement with North Korea on its nuclear weapons program.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Trump Oval was never going to win with the uber liberal NYT, its Editorial board is so left wing it makes Putin look like a moderate conservative, yes folks, they are that LIBERAL. The uber liberal NYT was never going to give Trump a chance even if he had caved and followed the advice of the elite left and Western allies, the NYT would have stated that Trump was weak and was never keeping his promises.    POTUS made the right move with IRAN, does anyone really trust them, as with North Korea, we will have to see, nothing ventured nothing gained. 

Trump on Iran - Update 2 - Iran Crisis

Daily Mail: Reports " Trump hits back at Iran after defiant leader calls him a liar: President warns they will be crippled by strongest sanctions ever if they dare to restart nuclear program   "

Lets Get Real:

The Obama/Iran deal is now in the hands of the EU, that includes the UK, can the major companies within the EU stand up to US sanctions, and do they want to, how much of a economic benefit is IRAN to these companies.  The US has to make sure that Western companies understand if they deal with the Iran then they can not deal with the US.   Also how much do the EU want to make the US peeved at its actions, the US is an economic policeman, its is still a powerful country.   One can argue that whatever the EU countries say then will fall in to line with the US when the time comes, the UK needs the US for its free trade after it leaves the EU.    All politics is local. 

Iran on the Trump sanctions - Iran Crisis

Sky News: Reports " Iran nuclear deal: Supreme leader 'doesn't trust UK' and says 'Trump will be worm food'...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says Iranian officials want a nuclear deal but "he doesn't trust Germany or France either". "

Lets Get Real:

Iran has a complex power structure, its  leader is the Supreme Leader not the President.  The President is seen by the elite press as moderate while the Supreme Leader is seen as very Conservative.  One can not dismiss the chance that Iran has a secret nuclear buildings that the UN does not know about.   Thus Tehran wants to keep the EU in the deal while it develops the bomb under its nose.   The Tehran Regime has two real choices, either talk to the US on a REAL DEAL or carry on as it is, make soft music with the EU while in secret building the bomb.   It was reported yesterday on CNN that Israel expects Iran to hit Israel from Syria, this would be a mistake by IRAN, a direct Iran attack on ISRAEL would bring the US into the fight.   The Middle East has just gotten hotter.