Is President Karzai the new Diem of Vietnam

The New York Times: Reports how President Karzai of Afghanistan has loss support of the Obama Administration due to the failure of his Administration to reform Afghanistan, the lack of reform has also effected his standing with the people of Afghanistan. This does recall the Kennedy Administration view of the Diem Government of South Vietnam before November 1963 when Diem was overthrown with the approval of the Kennedy Administration. The USA is not going to overthrow Karazi, he still the only national leader known to the International Community, but the lack of support could be taken by ambitious politicians as a green light to take power in Afghanistan. Lets recall the end of the Diem Government did not solve the problem, Diem was killed but the Governments came and went in Vietnam. The War that Kennedy enlarged with thousands of military advisers become an American War in 1964. It should be noted that we are at this stage since 2001, with the attacks of 9/11, the USA and the UK went in to Afghanistan to finish off the terrorists threat, Iraq divert attention but Iraq has been won in many respects, Afghanistan is still a problem. The terrorists are back, no Empire our country has had a good result in Afghanistan, thus the pause by President Obama is to be praised, he wants an Exit after a surge. The best exit is not to have a surge, keep Afghanistan on the low burn, use special forces, get the NATO allies to send more troops to the bloody place. As Fox News reported the Obama Administration wants it options open for leaving Iraq, in other words, Iraq has worked, sending more troops to Afghanistan would make it Obama's War. Thus can President Karazi prevent his fate being the fate of Diem, Diem was assassinated, lets hope he is a good political operator, we need Karazi we don't have that many options in the West.

Modern Iraq

Washington Post: Has an interesting article on how stable Iraq has become; of course there are still problems; but on the whole as the recent provincial elections have shown Iraq after the violence has become in some respects what Bush 43 wanted for Iraq in 2003, but only worked after his surge of troops. The Elite Media seems to have come around to the fact that Iraq after the Bush surge has worked, the Iraqi Army is taking up the security burden, the deal with the USA takes US Troops out of the towns, the majority of combat troops will be out of Iraq by 2011. Iraq after all the violence and death has a chance to become a beacon of regional peace in a War torn region. Read of the Day.

The USA and Afghanistan

BBC News: Reports that the Obama Administration sees Afghanistan as a problem harder to solve that Iraq. Its good to see that the new Obama Administration is taking its time when it comes to Afghanistan, the London Times Reports that President Obama wants to know Exit route out of Afghanistan thus a delay in sending troops to the region. This is Obama's LBJ moment, after the 1964 Presidential Election LBJ could have written off Vietnam but he followed the domino theory, that if he lost Vietnam the rest of South Asia would come under threat, thus more troops in to Vietnam. In the case of Afghanistan the argument is that if the west leaves the country the terrorists will come back and we get another 9/11. Thus the argument for more troops. Of course should the West leave the terrorists will come back, they are coming back now through Pakistan, thus it would not make much difference if the West was in Afghanistan or not. It can be argued that the USA and the UK should follow the old British Imperial Policy, do a deal to open Military bases in border badlands of Pakistan, this would allow the West to clean out this region, prevent the terrorists coming back over the border, but also allow them to keep a air patrol over Afghanistan, any building that is not approved by Kabul should be bombed. Any group meetings that are not approved by Kabul should be bombed. Thus we could take the troops out but keep troops on the ground to go back if we need to attack the terrorists but also use Air Power. As stated before it does not matter how many troops you have in Afghanistan you cant win, its that simple, we the UK have tried the USSR tried, thus the need for new ideas, if you cant win through conventional military means then one has to try a steel hand in a velvet glove.

Italy Good Friend

Guardian: Reports that Italy will send another eight hundred troops to Afghanistan, their total force will now be two thousand and eight hundred. This move will force the UK to send its surge of troops, lets hope this works, have my doubts, in less you cut off the terrorists coming from the badlands of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan the surges of the West will not work, lets send our troops in to Pakistan, lets finish this once and for all, the Government of Pakistan cant do the job, the West could lose hundreds or even thousands of troops in Afghanistan, if that is their fate lets say we did the best we could, lets take the terrorists out in Pakistan.

Obama and Iraq

Fox News: Reports that the Obama Administration could take up to twenty three months to get out of Iraq, not the sixteen months that Candidate Obama stated on the Campaign Trail. A longer timetable for withdrawal would be a wise move by Obama, it would allow Iraq to build up its own security, the USA could take out combat troops but have enough US Service Personnel in country to train the Iraqi military and police. Also in the region it would warn Iran that the USA is still over the border should Iran ever go nuclear, Obama if he plays this right could have Iraq as a net positive for Obama, a peaceful Iraq would be in contrast to Afghanistan, Afghanistan could become Obama's War after the planed surge of American troops this year. Read of the Day.

805 Billion Obama Money Pit

Fox News: Reports on the price tag for the Obama Economic Plan, eight hundred and Five Billion Dollars. Lets give it a chance, have opposed this and the bank bailout, the bank bailout has cost over seventy billion in losses for the tax payer. It can be argued that this vast spending spree should prevent another Great Depression but it can be postulated it will not prevent another 1982 kind of recession. Ronald Reagan has an approvals rating of in the thirties in this period but still won big in 84. Lets see if President Obama is a master politician in the shape of Reagan and Clinton, can he get re-elected in 2012. Is this Economic Plan the building to a great re-election or the first bad throw of the dice that will lead to a one term Obama Administration.

2nd Victory for Obama

President Obama has gained his second victory in Congress, the Wires report that the US Senate has agreed on his Economic Plan. The Democrats have agreed the plan with a few moderate Republicans. The Economy is now the Obama Economy, if it works President Obama gets re-elected, if the economy fails then Obama will be another Jimmy Carter. It should be noted in 1981 Ronald Reagan had a great victory in the House and Senate, when it came to having a combination of the House and Senate Bills, the Democratic Leadership tried an End Run around the President, the President had to get on the phones again to keep his Bill. Thus President Obama should keep an eye on the House Leadership. It seems that over forty percent of the Senate plan is tax cuts, that's good, more money in the pocket helps the working class. Also from reports it seems that the Democrats and seen the light when it comes to when the money is spent, the House Bill had most of the money coming in to effect in 2012. This would help Obama but not help the Democrats in the Mid Term Elections, thus the money will be spent in the first two years. Lets hope this works, the FDR's New Deal did not work in the end, FDR had a second Wall Street crash after a couple years, President Obama cant serve four terms as President, thus in many respects he has this first term to get the economy out of the toilet. If the Economic Plan works and Obama gets a second term, he will face the fact that within two years of re-election the process will start to elect a new President. If Obama keeps Biden he wont have a dog in the race, thus he will be in the same position as Bush 43. Thus it can be postulated that Obama will dump Biden and get a younger VP in 2012. This would allow the new VP to run on the Obama Agenda, if elected the new VP would give Obama the same aura as Reagan in having his VP be his successor.