Obama and Iraq

Politico: Reports as predicted by others and this blog that Obama is moving on his plan for Iraq. In other words on the policy that got him the nomination is out of the window. The Liberal Left wants out of Iraq now, so Obama went along with this idea, but now he has the nomination and he faces a basic problem, Iraq is working, the surge is working. The country that Obama wants to emphasise, Afghanistan is getting hotter, in fact as reported here yesterday Afghanistan over the past two months has seen more Western losses of troops that Iraq.

If Obama wins he is not going to quit Iraq when it is working, what happens if starts to withdraw troops and the civil war breaks out, Iran comes in and he is forced back in to Iraq, his Presidency would be over, he does not want to be a one term President. Thus Obama will change his policy, he will become a hawk on Iraq. To keep the Liberal wing happy he should state that he will support gay weddings at the White House and tougher gun control. He needs to be JFK, tough on Foreign Policy but liberal on Domestic Policy.

Iran Attack ?

BBC News: Reports on the opposition by the USA military to a military option for the nuclear problem of Iran. The BBC of course does not want to see military action they want to appease Iran. On the other hand its nice to see that they are covering the problem, the USA media seems to be on the ball to a future strike by Israel on Iran.

Deaths in Afghanistan

The Times: Reports that in the past two months, the West has lost more troops in Afghanistan than in Iraq. Afghanistan was the base for those that attacked the USA on 9/11 and Pakistan was the base for those that attacked London on 7/7. The history of dealing with Afghanistan and Pakistan in the border areas is not good, even at the height of the British Empire both places had troubling hot spots. The policy makers need to come up with a new policy, the terrorists in Afghanistan have learned from their fellow terrorists in Iraq, they changed their tactics thus we have more bombs and suicide bombers. Is the West ready to make a thirty or forty year commitment to Afghanistan, I have my doubts, we need new ideas and policies we cant give up, what happened on 9/11 and 7/7 shows the failure not to take an interest in the area after forcing the USSR out in 1988. This is going to be a long and bloody war.

Obama and the Liberal Left

New York Times: Reports that the LIBERAL LEFT is not happy with Obama for his support of wiretapping and the grant of immunity to the telephone companies. This move shows Obama in a good light, moving to the centre, the LIBERAL LEFT are crackpots, I would not trust them to take my dog for a walk never mind the security of the United States. Obama is showing political courage, the security of the USA is more important than the loony views of the Left wing of the Democratic Base. This shows Obama is a real and realistic politician if he had kept his word to oppose the agreement between the President and Congress this could have been used against him in the General Election.

The Polls

As stated in the past the Polls in June are quite suspect, but that's what we have as Empirical Information. Lets have a look at the latest polls.

Gallup: Has the race close, Obama 46% - McCain 44%. As Gallup states Obama after winning the nomination and the meet with Clinton gets a bounce but he cant build on that bounce in the polls. It should be recalled Senator Kerry managed to get a negative bounce from his convention. It could be argued that this will place pressure on Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his VP. I know he cant stand the Clintons but this is politics, after winning he can move her to the across the street from the White House. As for Bill Clinton appoint him Ambassador to the Falklands, even he cant cause trouble there, its full of Penguins.

CNN: Has a interesting Poll, it looks at the Obama / McCain match up but also looks at the race with third party candidates. I discount this second Poll with third party candidates. Thus lets look at the fight between Obama and McCain. In this poll Obama has a five point lead that would match previous polls, Obama 50% - McCain 45%. Thus we have a very close race, as stated in the past a close race does not help Obama, if he cant win now with all the bad domestic news he cant win period.

Israel and Iran

World Tribune: Reports that Israel has no plans to attack Iran in 2008. If your the Government of Israel its the kind of message you would send, it will cause confusion in Iran, it will make West place more pressure on Iran, as they now know that Israel will take action and you could get the price of Oil going to between 250 -300 Dollars. The Western is heading in to recession, a block in Oil could see the West go in to Depression. I still think Israel will hit Iran before the end of 2008.

Lines in the Sand ! - ABC News

ABC News: Reports on what could trigger a attack on Iran by Israel. The triggers would be that Iran was close to getting the bomb and or that there defence build up could hurt Israel should it attack Iran. Thus expect Israel to attack Iran just after the November Presidential Election, with the condition that Obama wins, Obama is seen as weak by Israel. On the other hand if McCain should win, Israel could wait for a few months. But should Obam win expect a heavy attack between November - January 2009. That Iran will attack Iraq, the USA will have to deal with a regional war. Iran will try to cut off the oil to the West, expect the ships to be targets of attack. The price of Oil could reach two hundred and fifty dollars. The UK press is sleep walking, they will only report this story when we have a WAR in the Middle East.