Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Politics is a mean Business
Mr Rumsfeld out, Enter Mr Gates. An interesting article in Time on the New Secretary of Defense, Click here.
Brief Overview of the Election Result
Thus as of writing this brief overview, the Democrats have taken the House and are two seats short of taking the Senate, two Seats are still outstanding. Thus the question why, with the exception of Iraq the Unites States at the moment is going through a great financial period, low inflation and unemployment, the Stock Market is going through the roof, the 1920s again. And after 9/11 no terrorist attack on the United Stats or her interests around the world, this not including Iraq. Thus the cautionary tale of Sir Winston Churchill in 1945.
After five years as Prime Minister and the defeat of Germany in 1945, the election of 1945 was seen as an easy victory for Churchill, of course we had the Labour government in 1945. 9/11 happened five years ago, no attack since, the terrorists have been removed from Afghanistan; the group has morphed in to a franchise operation with independent operators in different parts of the world. Thus they are harder to find as we saw by 7/7, but also they are less organized to plan a massive terrorist attack. It can be argued that UBL and ‘ The Base ’, his terrorist group, where are at their height pre 9/11, after 9/11 the group and its leaders and its supporters where either caught, killed or returned to their homes and hid their guns till they came back to fight British Forces over the last few years.
Thus we come to Iraq, it has to be asked with all the information we have now, what would have been the right policy to have when it comes to Iraq. As Iraq had no Weapons of Mass Destruction it has to be asked from a British point of view if the loss of 121 troops was worth the cost in sacrifice of our brave troops. Pre Iraq was many supported the government based on its argument that Iraq had WMD and it could be used in short order. Thus after 9/11 the wait and see policy was not an option, those that support a tough security policy supported the government based on the information it has been given, and saw those that opposed such action as weak if no appeasers, it can be argued that those that opposed the War had a point if only in a narrow manner that other options should be considered. The guilty sentence on its former leader can be argued made the war a right policy decision. Our troops are fighting a noble mission, we cant walk away that would be weak.
Thus the Mid Term Elections in many respects has given the USA and the UK a get out clause, the Democrats want change, well this is a chance for President Bush, they want to seat at the table, well drag them in and force them to take a stand, force the fissions with the Democratic Party, between the cut and run lot, that policy would hand the terrorist a victory that would cost the west for years, those that want to divide Iraq, any one with a brief knowledge of history should recall the death and destruction that was caused by the British division of India and Pakistan, not our finest hour. Those that want to put an Iraq face on the military, in other words to use the old American policy from Vietnam, and that didn’t work out well as we all now, that was a disaster for Vietnam and for the countries around Vietnam.
The above just shows there are no great options for Iraq, lets hope the Baker Report has a get out clause for the USA and the UK and one that the Democrats cant run away from, they wanted to win so they own the results.
After five years as Prime Minister and the defeat of Germany in 1945, the election of 1945 was seen as an easy victory for Churchill, of course we had the Labour government in 1945. 9/11 happened five years ago, no attack since, the terrorists have been removed from Afghanistan; the group has morphed in to a franchise operation with independent operators in different parts of the world. Thus they are harder to find as we saw by 7/7, but also they are less organized to plan a massive terrorist attack. It can be argued that UBL and ‘ The Base ’, his terrorist group, where are at their height pre 9/11, after 9/11 the group and its leaders and its supporters where either caught, killed or returned to their homes and hid their guns till they came back to fight British Forces over the last few years.
Thus we come to Iraq, it has to be asked with all the information we have now, what would have been the right policy to have when it comes to Iraq. As Iraq had no Weapons of Mass Destruction it has to be asked from a British point of view if the loss of 121 troops was worth the cost in sacrifice of our brave troops. Pre Iraq was many supported the government based on its argument that Iraq had WMD and it could be used in short order. Thus after 9/11 the wait and see policy was not an option, those that support a tough security policy supported the government based on the information it has been given, and saw those that opposed such action as weak if no appeasers, it can be argued that those that opposed the War had a point if only in a narrow manner that other options should be considered. The guilty sentence on its former leader can be argued made the war a right policy decision. Our troops are fighting a noble mission, we cant walk away that would be weak.
Thus the Mid Term Elections in many respects has given the USA and the UK a get out clause, the Democrats want change, well this is a chance for President Bush, they want to seat at the table, well drag them in and force them to take a stand, force the fissions with the Democratic Party, between the cut and run lot, that policy would hand the terrorist a victory that would cost the west for years, those that want to divide Iraq, any one with a brief knowledge of history should recall the death and destruction that was caused by the British division of India and Pakistan, not our finest hour. Those that want to put an Iraq face on the military, in other words to use the old American policy from Vietnam, and that didn’t work out well as we all now, that was a disaster for Vietnam and for the countries around Vietnam.
The above just shows there are no great options for Iraq, lets hope the Baker Report has a get out clause for the USA and the UK and one that the Democrats cant run away from, they wanted to win so they own the results.
Sunday, November 05, 2006
Final Predictions for the Mid Term Elections in the United States on the 7th of November 2006
Well folks it’s predicting time, who are going to be the winner and losers this election cycle.
Interesting article in the Washington Post, way down in the article it mentions that the generic polls is now 45 – 51 in favour of the Democrats. It should be noted that the article gives the impression that the election is a done deal, I would expect more from the Washington Post.
Here comes VIEWS prediction on House Seats. I will use the following guides, Democratic Pick Up, and 50/50. As it is about how many seats the Democrats can pick up to take the House, I will look at these and any seats they might have at risk. As a guide I have used the Seats suggested by RCP.
DPU
Arizona 8
Pennsylvania 10
Colorado 7
Ohio 18
New York 24
50/50 Personal View
Texas 22 ( R Hold )
Florida 16 ( R Hold)
Indiana 8
Pennsylvania 7
Iowa 1
North Carolina 11 (R Hold )
New Mexico 1
The Above are from RCP list of leaning Democrat / 12, Views has DPU 5 in the Bag, in the 50/50 Range I have the Republicans holding the Delay and Foley Seat, that places 4 in the 50/50 range.
The next section is based on the Seats that RCP places in the 50/50 range.
DPU
Ohio 15
Connecticut 4
50/50 PV
Indiana 2 ( R Hold )
Pennsylvania 6
New York 26 (R Hold)
Indiana 9 (R Hold)
Florida 13 ( R Hold)
Connecticut 5
Illinois 6
Minnesota 6 ( R Hold)
New York 20
Ohio 1 ( R Hold)
New Hampshire 2 ( R H)
Arizona 5 ( R H)
Overall Views has the Democratic Pick up at 7 in the bag. The Republicans holding 8 by a slight margin and in the 50/50 margin, 4 Seats. This would give the Democrats 11 Seats, 4 short of Control in the House. If you add the Four seats left from above, that would give them a control.
On the RCP there are two Democratic Seats that are in the 50/50 range: Views sees the following going to the Republicans, Georgia 12,
Thus if you follow the political polls, the Democrats are heading for a wave a new seats in Congress, VIEWS has a different view, here goes, the Republicans hold both Champers. If you are a Republican in the seats I have discussed could you please VOTE for the Republican Candidate or else Views will have to say Bill Clinton was a great President. And that would be beyond a nightmare for this political geek, so VOTE and VOTE Republican.
Interesting article in the Washington Post, way down in the article it mentions that the generic polls is now 45 – 51 in favour of the Democrats. It should be noted that the article gives the impression that the election is a done deal, I would expect more from the Washington Post.
Here comes VIEWS prediction on House Seats. I will use the following guides, Democratic Pick Up, and 50/50. As it is about how many seats the Democrats can pick up to take the House, I will look at these and any seats they might have at risk. As a guide I have used the Seats suggested by RCP.
DPU
Arizona 8
Pennsylvania 10
Colorado 7
Ohio 18
New York 24
50/50 Personal View
Texas 22 ( R Hold )
Florida 16 ( R Hold)
Indiana 8
Pennsylvania 7
Iowa 1
North Carolina 11 (R Hold )
New Mexico 1
The Above are from RCP list of leaning Democrat / 12, Views has DPU 5 in the Bag, in the 50/50 Range I have the Republicans holding the Delay and Foley Seat, that places 4 in the 50/50 range.
The next section is based on the Seats that RCP places in the 50/50 range.
DPU
Ohio 15
Connecticut 4
50/50 PV
Indiana 2 ( R Hold )
Pennsylvania 6
New York 26 (R Hold)
Indiana 9 (R Hold)
Florida 13 ( R Hold)
Connecticut 5
Illinois 6
Minnesota 6 ( R Hold)
New York 20
Ohio 1 ( R Hold)
New Hampshire 2 ( R H)
Arizona 5 ( R H)
Overall Views has the Democratic Pick up at 7 in the bag. The Republicans holding 8 by a slight margin and in the 50/50 margin, 4 Seats. This would give the Democrats 11 Seats, 4 short of Control in the House. If you add the Four seats left from above, that would give them a control.
On the RCP there are two Democratic Seats that are in the 50/50 range: Views sees the following going to the Republicans, Georgia 12,
Thus if you follow the political polls, the Democrats are heading for a wave a new seats in Congress, VIEWS has a different view, here goes, the Republicans hold both Champers. If you are a Republican in the seats I have discussed could you please VOTE for the Republican Candidate or else Views will have to say Bill Clinton was a great President. And that would be beyond a nightmare for this political geek, so VOTE and VOTE Republican.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Congressional Mid Term Elections 2006
An interesting article on why Bush might be confident for the Mid Terms Elections, Click here for The Allen Report.
If one thing is more fun for political geeks than future elections is looking at past elections and why candidates lost, interesting article on the latest John Kerry foul up, explains why he lost in 2004, Click here for CNN Article. The article states the following, ‘ Republicans unleashed a firestorm of criticism Tuesday against Sen. John Kerry after the Vietnam veteran told college students they'd "get stuck in Iraq" if they didn't work hard in school. ’ The Article states that Kerry had wanted to say something else, another flip flop.
Interesting Article in the Congressional Quarterly on the Mid Term Elections, the article states the following, ‘ The growing probability that the Democrats will win control of the House on Nov. 7, and still have a chance at the taller order of capturing the Senate as well, has hardly caught the political class by surprise. ’ Click here for full Article.
An article in the Washington Times on the expectations game for the Mid Term Elections, Click here for Full Article.
If you only read one Article, VIEWS would recommend this article in the Washington Post, while VIEWS might not agree on their numbers, they are worth a look and gives the political geek something to ponder, Click here for Article.
An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal on the recent development of early voting, the article states the following, ‘ Republicans say they have some good news in early-voting statistics that suggest their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races. ’ Click here for full Article.
Well the season for polls has arrived; we have polls for the same House Seat, which show different, and opposite results that cover the same days. Thus over the next few days VIEWS before the election is going to smell the Coffee and let his political gut lead him to make his final predictions for the Mid Terms. Views will make his prediction on the Monday before the election, and should he be wrong by a large margin he will write in his next blog that President Bill Clinton was a great President. As Views has no wish for this great calamity he will try to give an honest and objective opinion based on his reading of the political environment and the dreaded political Polls.
If one thing is more fun for political geeks than future elections is looking at past elections and why candidates lost, interesting article on the latest John Kerry foul up, explains why he lost in 2004, Click here for CNN Article. The article states the following, ‘ Republicans unleashed a firestorm of criticism Tuesday against Sen. John Kerry after the Vietnam veteran told college students they'd "get stuck in Iraq" if they didn't work hard in school. ’ The Article states that Kerry had wanted to say something else, another flip flop.
Interesting Article in the Congressional Quarterly on the Mid Term Elections, the article states the following, ‘ The growing probability that the Democrats will win control of the House on Nov. 7, and still have a chance at the taller order of capturing the Senate as well, has hardly caught the political class by surprise. ’ Click here for full Article.
An article in the Washington Times on the expectations game for the Mid Term Elections, Click here for Full Article.
If you only read one Article, VIEWS would recommend this article in the Washington Post, while VIEWS might not agree on their numbers, they are worth a look and gives the political geek something to ponder, Click here for Article.
An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal on the recent development of early voting, the article states the following, ‘ Republicans say they have some good news in early-voting statistics that suggest their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races. ’ Click here for full Article.
Well the season for polls has arrived; we have polls for the same House Seat, which show different, and opposite results that cover the same days. Thus over the next few days VIEWS before the election is going to smell the Coffee and let his political gut lead him to make his final predictions for the Mid Terms. Views will make his prediction on the Monday before the election, and should he be wrong by a large margin he will write in his next blog that President Bill Clinton was a great President. As Views has no wish for this great calamity he will try to give an honest and objective opinion based on his reading of the political environment and the dreaded political Polls.
Sunday, October 29, 2006
Mid Term Elections, End of October 2006
Here us the latest poll from Missouri, a state that could decide who controls the US Senate:
Missouri: Talent ( R ) 47% - 47% McCaskill ( D )
The fight over stem cell research seems to have helped the Democratic candidate get to even, can it get her over the top in November is another question.
Some interesting articles on the US Mid Term Elections for your Sunday viewing:
Is Bush Alone, Time Article, In essence the article states that the President is a problem to his Republican Candidates and the future depends on how much seats the Democrats win. A narrow majority a limited action, a large majority more problems for the President. The Article states that the Administration will use all the administrative powers of the Presidency to gain its agenda.
The Political Plan of Karl Rove, LA Times Article , the article main point being that the Republicans might be down but they are not out just yet.
The Money game in Politics, Washington Post Article , the article states the following on the political TV adds that will be produced by both Parties, ‘ Most of the ads will be dark and accusatory ’ As the article points out, the right political plan followed could decide who controls the House for the next two years.
Missouri: Talent ( R ) 47% - 47% McCaskill ( D )
The fight over stem cell research seems to have helped the Democratic candidate get to even, can it get her over the top in November is another question.
Some interesting articles on the US Mid Term Elections for your Sunday viewing:
Is Bush Alone, Time Article, In essence the article states that the President is a problem to his Republican Candidates and the future depends on how much seats the Democrats win. A narrow majority a limited action, a large majority more problems for the President. The Article states that the Administration will use all the administrative powers of the Presidency to gain its agenda.
The Political Plan of Karl Rove, LA Times Article , the article main point being that the Republicans might be down but they are not out just yet.
The Money game in Politics, Washington Post Article , the article states the following on the political TV adds that will be produced by both Parties, ‘ Most of the ads will be dark and accusatory ’ As the article points out, the right political plan followed could decide who controls the House for the next two years.
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
A Hung Parliament, Sorry Hung House of Representatives
An interesting article by Michael Barone today, he writes the following, ‘ My predictions would produce an almost evenly divided House: 219 Democrats, a net gain of 16, and 216 Republicans. ’ As this would very slim majority, and VIEWS recalls the Majority of around 21 John Major had in 1992, that went fast one way or another. Thus a massive shift would become a day-to-day battle to gain a majority for new ideas to get passed. As the Speaker Nancy Pelosi, would have to balance the demands of the far left on the Democratic side of the Party with the voting power of those on the conservative side of the Party, they do still have some. As with the lose of votes over the two years, it could place President George W. Bush in a very interesting position. Speaker Pelosi might need President Bush more than George W. Bush needs a helpful Speaker. The Democrats if this prediction came true would not have the majority to overrule a Presidential Veto, thus if they wanted to get anything done and have a chance of keeping a majority they would have to work with the White House, that’s why Democracy is interesting if not perfect.
Some new Senate Polls, have come out, Tennessee, Bob Corker (R) is at 49% compared to 44% for Harold Ford ( D ) RCP average is Corker up by 3%. In Missouri, two Polls have Jim Talent ( R ) up by 3% , they both place Jim Talent at 48% and his Democratic Opponent, Claire McCaskill at 45% , the RCP average is Talent up by 1% . In Virginia we have two different Polls, one has George Allan ( R ) up by 4% over his Democratic Opponent James Webb, but another Poll has Webb ahead of Allen by 3%. The RCP average has Allen ahead by 1.8%. RCP has the Democrats taking four seats in the Senate; they are two short for control of the Senate.
Some new Senate Polls, have come out, Tennessee, Bob Corker (R) is at 49% compared to 44% for Harold Ford ( D ) RCP average is Corker up by 3%. In Missouri, two Polls have Jim Talent ( R ) up by 3% , they both place Jim Talent at 48% and his Democratic Opponent, Claire McCaskill at 45% , the RCP average is Talent up by 1% . In Virginia we have two different Polls, one has George Allan ( R ) up by 4% over his Democratic Opponent James Webb, but another Poll has Webb ahead of Allen by 3%. The RCP average has Allen ahead by 1.8%. RCP has the Democrats taking four seats in the Senate; they are two short for control of the Senate.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)