The Final Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.01pm post the following, " Mordaunt knocked out of contest...Penny Mordaunt has been knocked out of the Conservative leadership contest, meaning Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss will face each other in the run-off decided by party members. "

Lets Get Real:

This blog and others got the result right, its down to Former Chancellor Sunak versus the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.  On the whole this blog support Liz, she did not resign and betray PM Boris, while Sunak started the ball rolling that lead to the downfall of Boris.   The Foreign Secretary taking the Northern Ireland Protocol through the House of Commons, one will be interested to hear if Sunak becomes PM will he use the Bill if it is needed to place pressure on the EU.  It is reported that in Cabinet that the Chancellor was opposed to using the bill as a way to place pressure on the EU.  The recent POLLS of Conservative membership  have shown that the membership support LIZ over Rishi, Liz wants TAX CUTS KNOW, while Sunak wants to get inflation down then go for tax cuts.  The UK economy needs a push to stay away from going in to recession, BIG TAX CUTS should help.  The Summer is a long time, we shall see if Liz can keep her 20% over Sunak, a weeks is a long time in politics. 

The 4th Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit / Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.03pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 118, Penny Mordaunt - 92, Liz Truss - 86 and finally Kemi Badenoch - 59 who is OUT,  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus Kemi Badenoch is OUT, the BIG QUESTION is were will her votes go, as Kemi is seen as of being right in the Party, one can postulate that her voters will go for Liz.  Thus it would fit my prediction that the final two would be Sunak or Truss.  Of course there is the problem we are dealing with the most devious back stabbing electorate in HISTORY, Conservative MPs.  There will be a lot of talks going on over the night, the suggestion of job offers or other trinkets that a new Conservative leader can give out. If I was a betting man I would put £5 on it being Sunak and Truss, of course this blog could be WRONG, we shall know at 4pm tomorrow. 

The 3rd Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit / Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.05pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 115, Penny Mordaunt - 82, Liz Truss - 71, Kemi Badenoch - 58, Tom Tugendhat - 31  "

Lets Get Real:

As expected Tom went out today, he might be a future heavy weight in the Party even PM, he has to try and not to mention his WAR RECORD every time, this blog honours he service in Iraq and Afghanistan but Tom should try to stop himself bringing up the subject every time over every issue, it become a bit of bore.  Tomorrow this blog predicts that Kemi will be out, one can assume that Tom's votes will go to Penny, as Penny is seen as more of ONE NATION Conservative and is very woke!.  The question for the final round will be is simple, will it be Penny or Liz that face Sunak in the membership vote, it should be noted that Sunak does less well with this membership.  It was wise for the Conservatives to cancel tomorrows debate, the candidates were given ammo to the Labour Party.  This blog is still keeping to its prediction that the final race will be between Rishi and Liz, that of course depends if the Kemi voters go for Liz, one can never be sure with the Conservative MPs. 

Iran could have a NUCLEAR BOMB if it wanted - Tehran - Biden Era

The Jerusalem Post: Reports " Khamenei adviser says Tehran 'capable of building nuclear bomb'......Tehran will also directly respond against Israel should its security be targeted, the report says citing the advisor.  "

Lets Get Real:

This could be IT folks, of course this blog does not trust Tehran for one minute, if they say they can make the bomb if they wish, that means they have the bomb and this is just to let the WORLD KNOW, that they can strike Israel should Israel decide that it cannot wait for Joe Biden to pull his finger out and do something.  One does hope that the CIA, NSA, GCHQ, MI6 have their ears open and agents on the ground to help if the West decides they have to strike, if TEHRAN does not return to the diplomatic table and be totally honest with the UN and the West they leave the West with very few non military options, they have more sanctions on them that Russia at the minute, and still they build towards the bomb.  One does hope that the Biden Oval is up to this crisis, and if the story is true, this is major crisis like the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. 

PM on Brexit - After Brexit / Boris

The Sun: Reports " PENNY'S PROMISE 

I’ll get Brexit re-done and put more pounds in people’s pockets if made Prime Minister, vows Penny Mordaunt "

Lets Get Real:

The article says ALL the right things when it comes to Brexit, but the sister paper of the Sun, the Sunday Times that has a complete view from sources, that PM will not follow through with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill and will try to appease the EU.  There is no appeasing the EU, they will just play it out, in till they think that Labour will win the next election.  Either PM is being economic with the truth when it comes to Brexit or the sources in the Sunday Times are feeding the Sunday Times what it wants to HEAR.  On does hope that the debate tonight the issue is bought up, one is tired of the Trans issues, and taxes, there are other things to discuss.  The above article would convince one that PM is a conviction Brexit supporter, but with politicians its what they do not say that counts, or this blog could be paranoid about the political class. 

PM on 2nd Scottish Vote and Northern Ireland Protocol - The UK Union under PM

Guido Fawkes/Sunday Times ( Hard Copy ): Reports that Penny Mordaunt is opposed to another 2nd Independence vote and that Mordaunt would appease the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol by keeping the border in the Irish Sea.  

Lets Get Real:

The Union would come under threat if PM got the job of PM, on the one hand she opposes a 2nd Independence vote for Scotland, but is willing to throw Northern Ireland under the bus, and prevent the establishment of a regional Government for the province.  The DUP has made it CLEAR, they will not go back in to Government with the Nationalists if the Northern Ireland Protocol is not removed or changed in a major way.  The DUP can argue that PM will stand up to the SNP but will not defend the rights of British subjects in Northern Ireland.  Under the LAW if there is no Government in the province after 6 months then there are fresh elections, this would create massive Constitutional problem, the Nationalists could increase their majority and make the DUP and other Unionist Parties feel weak, that could cause more problems in the province even violence, something no one wants to see.  Thus PM has to have a more clear policy, No to the SNP and YES to scrapping parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Northern Ireland, otherwise her administration will start in a confused manner and lead to major problems down the road. 

2nd Round of the Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit/Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.02pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak - 101 votes,Penny Mordaunt - 83 votes,Liz Truss - 64 votes,Kemi Badenoch - 49 votes,Tom Tugendhat - 32 votes,  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus far the Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss is under preforming, thus the blog could be WRONG, it might be Sunak AND Mordaunt, this reason this blog does not think that it would happen this way is the FACT that the right of the party has split its vote. The present Attorney General is out, and one can presume ( always very dangerous when discussing Conservative Leadership contest, ) that the supporters of Suella Braverman will go for Liz Truss, what Kemi is still doing in the race is a mystery, let's be honest Kemi might be famous in her own house but in till last week no one knew who the hell she was.  The Monday round will be interesting, it can be postulated that either Kemi or Tom are on the way out, one would assume Tom, thus his votes might go to Sunak or to PM.  When Kemi is finally out, one would guess her supporters would go to Truss.   Thus the original prediction of this blog might stand, its gets difficult when you cannot tell the wood from the trees, there is a debate tomorrow on the TV, that might change things again, it is going to be a long summer, if it is Sunak and PM ( good initials for a future PM ) are the final two, it has been suggested by various polls of Conservative members will go for PM.  PM is a ONE NATION CONSERVATIVE AND a  Conviction  BREXIT SUPPORTER, this might go down well with the Party, Sunak is seen as having stabbed PM Boris in the back.  A lot can happen over the Summer.