All Politics is LOCAL - Brexit Update 2 - Post Brexit

Daily Mail: Reports " May's Brexit cash for deal-backing MPs: PM 'to entice Labour rebels to support her plans by pledging money for their constituencies' "

Lets Get Real:

This is a bribe to the Labour voters in poor Labour Constituencies, it will place pressure on Labour MPs to support the May plan 2 when it comes before the House of Commons in two weeks time.  Of course the PM has to keep the HARD BREXIT supporters on side, also the DUP.  If the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has some political talent, he would allow the May plan to pass, if it works then he can say that he followed the will of the UK voter in 2016 and if it is a disaster he can say that Labour would have done a better job.  The HARD REMAINERS within the Conservative and Labour Parties will still try to THWART Brexit.   The idea of a 2nd Brexit vote had died a death, MPs do not want it, it would break trust with the UK voter.  One hopes that PM May has something in her handbag, she needs a new plan, that keeps various factions on board. 

EU STONEWALLS over UK Brexit DEMANDS - Brexit Update - Post Brexit

Sky News: Reports " PM immediately rebuffed by EU leaders in Brexit renegotiation effort..Brussels reiterates its stance that the UK's withdrawal agreement is the "best and only" deal possible to avoid a no-deal Brexit.  "

Lets Get Real:

The EU is stonewalling for NOW, the PM has to stare them DOWN, if need the PM should consider sending the Houses of Parliament in to recess and go for a No Deal Brexit.  One's political gut sees a deal, IF May and Corbyn can agree on a Customs Union, one that the UK can get out when it wishes, then one can see a DEAL.  Of course the Hard Brexit supporters will not be happy, but it's better to get OUT of the EU first, then a new Conservative PM can restart the talks after winning a majority in a fresh general election.  The main PRIZE is getting out of the EU.  The HARD REMAINERS will NEVER be happy, the EU has become an article of FAITH FOR THEM, they still want a 2nd Brexit vote.  It is expected that the PM will go to Ireland and to the EU to have FRESH talks, if the EU is playing funny games then the PM should say so in public, the UK voter will not tolerate being treated badly, thus more support for a No Deal Brexit. 

National Security and President Trump - Trump Era

BBC News: Reports " President Donald Trump has called US intelligence agencies "naive" on Iran and also dismissed their assessment of the threat posed by North Korea.  "

Lets Get Real:

If you have a BRAIN CELL and your are POTUS you do not dish your Intelligence services, they know ALL the secrets.   President Trump has been WEAK over North Korea and Russia, he has trusted the North Korean leader who has fooled him in to believing that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons.   On Russia the Kremlin must have something on Trump, whatever other reason can there be for the fact that Trump is kissing the backside of President Putin.   On Iran POTUS might have a point, the Tehran Regime since 1979 has been a threat to the US and Western interests.   Why on earth the Republican Establishment is keeping faith with Trump is beyond this blog, they should be supporting someone to challenge the President in 2020.   It can be postulated that Trump will lose in 2020, the Republicans should considering getting their majority back in the House and keeping the Senate Republican.   Of course the Democrats could nominate a Candidate that goes down like a LEAD BALLOON in the FLY OVER States, politics is an art not a science. 

Brave Labour MPs and Brexit - Brexit Update 4 - Post Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Labour MPs rebel to vote down Cooper's no-deal amendment..Caroline Flint and Eurosceptics Kate Hoey and Dennis Skinner among group of 14 rebels  "

Lets Get Real:

Never thought I would call Labour MPs BRAVE, but those that voted with the Government are BRAVE, they believe in DEMOCRACY, the people decided in 2016, they meant LEAVE.   The PM should bring in these members for talks, let's hope the Government keeps them for the vote in two weeks, and also see if there are other Labour MPs who would consider voting with the Government, the PM could state that workers rights would be protected, that once the UK leaves the EU, there will be no removal of workers rights.   The Hard Remainers within the Conservative Party and the Labour Party will try to thwart Brexit, in this they are supported by the elite press.    The March 29th exit date is still not certain.

The Plan that MIGHT have saved Brexit - Brexit Update 3 - Post Brexit

Daily Mail: Reports " May welcomes 'serious' Plan C from Tory Brexiteers and Remainers that extends transition period to 2021 but demands the EU ditches the backstop "

Lets Get Real:

At the end of the day politics is about compromise, if a firm Brexit supporter and a firm Remainer can agree on a plan then it has a good chance of uniting the Conservative Party and getting passed the House of Commons.   The PM should take this plan with her when she goes to the EU.   The EU will have CHOICE, do they want EU purity at the cost of losing 39 billion and a good trade relationship with the UK or will the DEAL.   After the House of Commons vote the EU stated he it would not change the DEAL, well a week is a LONG time in politics.    One would not be shocked or surprised if a DEAL develops, the EU leadership might have to place pressure on the Republic Ireland, they have to back down or face having their economy wrecked by a NO DEAL BREXIT.  

PM May's GOOD DAY - Brexit Update 2 - Post Brexit

Sky News: Reports " Surprise victory for May as MPs support backstop amendment..Sky's Kate McCann says the PM being forced to change tact may not sound like a win but it signals a change of mood among her MPs.  "

Lets Get Real:

The PM has had a few miserable months, the press have been negative and the her Conservative MPs have been a pain in the backside.  Today the PM united the Party, but she has to follow through, she has to get something that is legally binding out of the EU, anything else would be pointless and would be defeated in the House of Commons.  If the EU will not move the PM has to make the EU the one at fault.  If the EU can be shown as the one that is stubborn and will not move the PM can the press forward with a NO DEAL BREXIT, if there is resistance in the House the PM should send it into recess, she has the power through the Queen.   The HARD REMAINERS will carry on trying to thwart Brexit, Hard Brexit supporters have to be on guard. 

A Good Day for Brexit Supporters - Brexit Update 1 - Post Brexit

BBC News: Reports " MPs have backed seeking "alternative arrangements" to replace the Irish backstop in Theresa May's Brexit plan.  "

Lets Get Real:

Today was an unexpected WIN for PM May, she got what she wanted on the whole, the support of the House of Commons for the PM to say to the EU that the Irish backstop has to go before the EU Withdrawal Agreement is agreed by the House.  The Conservative Government was helped by the FACT that Brexit supporters and Remainers came to a compromise and that Labour MPs from Leave Seats voted with the Government.    There was a no binding vote that showed that the House of Commons does not favour a No Deal Brexit, but this can be placed in the bin by  PM May.   The PM has to be tough with the EU, if they want 39 billion pounds and a good trade with the UK they have to place pressure on Ireland to back down, the Irish might have overplayed their hand, will the EU really go for EU purity over HARD CASH, does the German taxpayer want to fund the EU more, it's the Germans that fund the EU, they say what goes.    The chances of a 2nd Brexit vote are no slim, the House of Commons as a whole does not want a vote, neither does Jeremy Corbyn the Labour Leader.   IT was interesting to see Sky and BBC News, they were so glum that May had a good day and their favourite option of a 2nd Brexit vote died a death.  Both Channels reported that the EU has stated that the May Deal can not be redone, this is common EU practice, say No in till they have to say yes.   Next two weeks will be interesting.