Weekend Polls

Lets have a look at the Tracking Polls before the Democratic Convention and naming of Joe Biden as VP to Obama.

Gallup: Reports a tied race between McCain and Obama. The Tracking Polls find the following, Obama 45% - McCain 44%. The McCain Campaign has predicted that Obama will come out of the Democratic Convention with a 15% lead in the polls. This would be a big bounce, but if Obama gives a great speech and the Liberal Media sticks the script and fawns over him then its in the realm of reality. If Obama gets that swing and keeps it he would win in a landslide, not holding my breath over that result.

Rasmussen: Also finds a tied race, the poll finds the following, Obama 47% - McCain 46%.

Obama on the whole cant break the 50% level,m while McCain is getting to the right side of the 45%. Obama needs a big bounce from the Convention and he needs to keep it for November. Obama has to careful that he does not go to left wing, recent days we have seen the candidates go at each other over who is richer, they are both rich, the difference is and this is important, when you have been a POW in Vietnam you deserve something at the other side, Obama has a thin record on achievement and also he was not a POW in Vietnam and a War Hero.

The well respected RealClearPolitics average of the Polls has Obama leading by 1.4%. In other words a tied race, the Conventions this year could give either candidates a bounce that could place them on the road to victory.

Obama/Biden 08

BBC News: Reports that Joe Biden has been selected to run with Senator Obama. The naming of Obama is meant to negate the weakness of Obama in National Security. The problem on Iraq Biden wanted to split up Iraq in to three provinces, he saw it as a failed state, President Bush was right when it came to Iraq and the surge. The McCain Campaign should start to run Political Ads which shows that Obama has made a mistake, and shows clips of Biden when it comes to Iraq and his wrong solution for that problem. If Georgia had not come up it is interesting would Obama have chosen Biden, would he have not preferred the Governor of Virgina.

The Nation and Clinton

The Nation: Argues that Hillary Clinton should be the VP to Obama. As the polls stand now its a good argument, never though I would agree with the Bible for Liberals, if they believed in God.

Satellites of Russia

Telegraph: Reports that Russia will recognise the Independence of two Georgian Provinces, South Ossetia, the province that sparked the War between Russia and Georgia and Abkhazia. They will become Satellites of Russia.The Russians can now be considered bad actors in International Politics, they have broke the Ceasefire with Georgia, they are still in country, and worse they have broke their word to the West. The West and NATO, should place the Ukraine under Western Security guarantee, if the Russians start to play games in that country they should be aware this is not Georgia and the West will take action, Putin is a modern Tsar, minus title, give him time, the question is will he be Alexander 11, a wise ruler or Nicholas 11, a stubborn man who failed and destroyed Imperial Russia.

What Next for Obama ?

CNN: David Gergen writes an interesting article on what Obama needs to do to became the Star again in the Presidential Race. He's for Clinton as VP, Mrs Obama is not for that option. Also I think McCain has defined Obama with some success, young, lack of experience, arrogant, liberal, thin record of political achievement. Obama has to turn it around with his VP and the Convention.

The West and Russia

Fox News: Reports that Russia has threatened to take action over the deal between Poland and the USA, the action would go beyond Diplomatic methods. Have the Russians lost the plot are, have they drunk to much Vodka, you don't threaten the USA and Poland in this manner, its negative on two fronts, the West will but Russia in the Cold Freeze and on the USA domestic front this helps McCain. Obama is seen as weak on National Security, his first response to the the War between Russia and Georgia was seen as weak by most commentators. Think 1960 Election when Kennedy used the Missile Gap to win, if you are seen as weak the USA voter will go with the hawk. SIMPLE LESSON FOR RUSSIA, IF YOU WANT OBAMA TO WIN, GET OUT OF GEORGIA, IF YOU WANT MCCAIN TO WIN ANOTHER COLD WAR, THEN JUST CARRY ON, POOR RUSSIA.

McCain leading Obama

Reuters/Zogby: As noted don't do individual polls during the week in less they are different from the norm, this one has McCain ahead of Obama. On the whole in most polls Obama has a slim lead over McCain. The RCP Average of polls has Obama ahead by 1.2%. This Reuters/Zogby Poll has the following result, McCain 46% - Obama 41%. It should be noted that this Poll was taken while Obama way on holiday and McCain had the stage to himself. Thus we have the Convention to come up and also a VP to be named. As Obama and the Democrats go first, one should expect Obama to get a bounce from the Convention, it should be noted that Senator Kerry managed to get a negative bounce from his Convention. It will be interesting to see the Polls after both Conventions, in the West Wing Season 7, the Republicans had the lead it would be interesting to see what the polls show after the Conventions. It should be noted that the Republicans in the TV series lost the election even after having a lead after the TV Conventions.