The HOUSE Republican ?

RCP - House: Reports on its latest prediction for the House of Representatives, in its latest projection the Republicans will have 223 seats, five seats over the 218 needed to take the House, the Democrats would be on 179 seats and there are 33 seats that could go either way. This blog predicts that the Republicans will take between 50 and 65 Seats in the House, this is not breaking news, this is the range that most other webs sites have stated, if the Republicans can take between 70 and 100 then it’s a new ball game, they will be tea party candidates, they will not want to play ball with the Oval, it will be tough even with the lower figure but over 70 and the Obama will have to show that he is a real political operator, they have no interest in giving the Oval any victories. Interesting few weeks ahead folks.

Tony Blair and Iraq - Back in the Public Dock!

Guardian: Reports that former Labour PM Tony Blair will be recalled to give evidence to the Iraq inquiry, the Guardian states the following for the recall, “ concerned about damaging and conflicting evidence revealed since former PM's last appearance ”. It seems that the concern is that Mr Blair gave US President his green light for invasion after being told that the lawyers within the Blair Government had great concern about the legality of the War. One could postulate that the Iraqi Inquiry is going to hang Mr Blair out to dry, it seems the public want a political sacrifice, as Mr Blair is out of power and has been dumped on by the new Labour Leader Ed Miliband it seems that Mr Blair is the easy target to be thrown to the wolves. Would advice Mr Blair to watch his back when he returns to the Inquiry or even better give it a miss, either way he will be thrown to wolves, that is the price the Establishment wants to bury the Iraq War.

“ Shove It ” President Obama - And that is a Democrat!

Telegraph: Reports that a Democrat running to be Governor of Rhode Island has told President Obama to “ Shove It” that being his political endorsement. This is a curious case that shows the arrogance of President Obama, the leader of the Democratic Party wont endorse the Democratic nominee due to the fact that the his challenger is a former Republican colleague of his in the US Senate, the Colleague is running as an Independent in the race and in the last poll has a 7% lead. Since the dawn of political time there has been a friendship between members of different political parties, at leas the opposition wont stab you in the back, unlike your suppose colleagues. But this shows President Obama does not understand modern American politics, the leader gives his nod the Democratic nominee even if he hates his/her guts, loathes him/her, the sole exception if the candidate has been arrested or faces a major trial, and this does not arise in this case, other Democratic Candidates will ask can the Oval be trusted in a tight spot, Obama could face a nomination challenge in 2012, he needs the Democratic Party at his back, if you’re a Democrat do you trust Obama after Rhode Island.

The Economy and the Mid Term Electins

Gallup: Has interesting polls on the economy a few days before the 2010 Mid Term Congressional Elections in the US, when asked their economic conditions voters stated the following, Poor 42% and Excellent/Good 14%. On the economic outlook voters stated the following, Getting Worse 58% and Getting Better 35%. The Obama Agenda could be dead on the Hill after November due to the economic fears of the voters, they see the Obama spending and they fear for their future jobs prospects and the prospects for their families. Will be interesting to match the above with the actual vote in such states as Ohio, states that have been hit hard by the economic recession, POTUS needs Ohio in 2012, Obama has been so many times to Ohio he should rent a house, it would save on the costs of visits. Also it would make for good PR, it would show that POTUS was in touch with the voters, could see the recession every day.

Mid Term Polls

RCP: Reports on its Average of the generic polls for Mid Term Congressional Elections, the Parties stand at the following, Republicans 49.1% and Democrats 41.6%, a Republican lead of 7.7%. This kind of swing would give the Republicans a good working majority in the House and close to parity with the Democrats in the Senate. Thus the question is what will POTUS do, can he get beyond his own ideological agenda, can see that the US is to his right. The success of Reagan and Clinton was their ability to be pragmatic, to deal with real world of politics, Reagan would rent votes in the House for deals in local districts that benefited the Congressman, very much like LBJ. Clinton could see that the centre had moved to the right thus followed an Agenda that most moderate or even Conservative Republicans could support, its called being a good politician, even if Reagan just called himself an ex Actor and not a politician. Thus my political advice to POTUS, give the Republicans the Bush 43 tax cuts they want, they might be able to over ride a Presidential veto of tax cuts to all, also start to fight your base, the voters wont take President Obama as a serious politician unless he takes on his base, thus he should tell his base that he will reform ObamaCare, that the US will stay and win in Afghanistan, that there is no more money for government jobs. This just might get POTUS re-elected in 2012, no guarantees but it better than being another Jimmy Carter.

Iran and Afghanistan - Obama Administration

Fox News: Reports that the Chief of Staff to President Karzai of Afghanistan is being bribed by Iran to push the interests of Iran. The Obama Administration can not afford to lose Afghanistan to Iran, in Iraq Tehran is pulling the strings for the new government, the power of Iran comes from the fact that it is expected to become a nuclear armed power with next couple of years. As Obama was anti Iraq War he has allowed Iraq to fall in to clutches of Iran, with Afghanistan it was meant to be the good war, it was the war the Democrats wanted to fight in 2008. Its is 2011 that is important to Obama’s Foreign Policy, by the end of 2011 the US will be out of Iraq, the question is will Iraq become a puppet of Iran or will Iraqi nationalism come to the fore, thus making Iraq more neutral in the cold war between Iran and the US. Also in 2011 President Obama has stated that the US will start to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, this statement was made to keep the left wing of the Democratic Party happy, the problem is if your poor Afghan are you going to put your head on the line in a literal sense to support NATO forces when you hear the US President state that he wants out of Afghanistan, don’t have to be that bright to answer that question. The point of Afghanistan is not AFGHANISTAN, it is Pakistan, both Pakistan and India are nuclear armed powers, it would be a disaster for the West if the Taliban of Pakistan take over Pakistan, the West would have invade Pakistan, it would be to much of a threat, thus to keep Pakistan stable the West has to win in Afghanistan. The badlands of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is the safe heaven for the terrorists, if they have a secure base in Afghanistan they could topple the Government of Pakistan. Thus President Obama is about to find out if he is the brightest person in the room, can he secure Afghanistan, withdraw troops and not lose Pakistan to the Taliban, either the brightest or a dud, those are the choices, and your cant use the race card on Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Coalition Government and the House of Lords

Mail on Sunday: Reports that Coalition PM and Conservative Leader David Cameron and his Deputy Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats will place 44 new members in the House of Lords to prevent defeat by Labour. The Conservative and Lib Dems won the election thus they have the right to pack the House of Lords with those that will support the Government, also this makes sure the Lords will never be reformed, when the spending cuts really hurt the Coalition Government is not going to reform the Upper House in to an elected body as this would give the Labour Party a chance to veto laws it can not stop in the House of Commons. Thus is pure politics 101, you don’t shoot yourself in the foot!