President Obama at 40% Approval in New NYT/CBS Poll - 2nd Term Blues

The New York Times: Reports " The president’s approval rating is now at 40 percent, while 54 percent say they disapprove of the job he is doing in office, a six-point jump since May. "

Lets Get Real:

This is what happens when past decisions made in the 1st term come back to haunt you, the decision to leave the future of US and Iraqi relationship to VP Biden was a mistake,  thus the removal of US troops in 2011, the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and its threat to Syria, Iraq and now Jordan  shows that it was a massive strategic mistake for the US to leave Iraq without getting an agreement to leave troops behind, the more that ISIS grows more that the US has to do, one can even see combat troops going back, in some respects Iraq is far more important than Vietnam ever was,  if Iraq goes under, this could wreak the Western economic recovery, the last few days has seen a rise in oil prices, if Al Qaeda controls the oil of Iraq the US might have to go back, what an outcome for President Obama that would be, the political Gods would have shown their verdict on the Obama Presidency. 

You break it You own IT - Iraq - Middle East

Telegraph - Iraq Live: Reports the following in a interesting post at 9.20am this morning, " Senate Intelligence Chairman Dianne Feinstein: The Maliki government, candidly, has got to go if you want any reconciliation....White House spokesman Jay Carney: Whether it's the current prime minister or another leader, we will aggressively attempt to impress upon that leader the absolute necessity of rejecting sectarian governance. "

Lets get Real:

It seems that the Senate and the White House Press Secretary are following the Presidential line that the Iraqi PM has to reform or else, the else being go, how can the Iraqi Government be sovereign if with a snap of his hands the US President can decide who should be the PM.   This  is a massive blunder by the Oval, what if the PM goes and they hate replacement, in essence the Vietnam War after the fall of Diem become America's war, with various South Vietnam Governments in the background, while the US tried to defeat the forces of North Vietnam and failed in the long term.    The Obama Oval can not refuse to bomb after if starts if it finds some policy it does not like, that would make the Baghdad Government a puppet of the US, its better to leave the present PM in, so if things do go wrong, then the US voter and the International Community can put a face to the problem, no face and its the face of the Oval that will get the critical reaction. 

Maliki OUT ? Another Diem Mistake - Middle East

Guardian:  Reports the following remarks by US Secretary of State John Kerry, " In that NBC interview Kerry also insisted the US was not seeking to prop up the Maliki government. "

Lets Get Real:

The Guardian reports that the US has demanded that the PM Maliki goes as a price for the US to take action, that would be a mistake for the US and Iraq, lets recall JFK and the Kennedy Administration  gave the green light for the overthrow of Diem in 1963,  after Diem was assassinated in November the Vietnam War became America's War, if the US is seen to force out the Iraqi PM then the fate of Iraq belongs to the US again, if your break something you own it, so the US afte getting out of Iraq 2011 would be deciding who the next Government will be, what if the Ovla does  not llike that one, can it just snap its fingers and get any Iraqi Government it wants, its better to leave the impression that the Iraqi Government is its own master, even if the truth is that the US controls events.   Lets hope the Oval gets some wiser minds for national security discussions. 

Obama does not need Congress WHEN it comes to Iraq - Middle East

BBC News: Reports " US President Barack Obama has told Congressional leaders he does not need lawmakers' approval for any action in Iraq, the top Senate Republican says. "

Lets Get Real:

It is odd how President Obama finds his backbone when telling off Congress but can not stand up to Iran, Syria and other threats to US national security, the Oval  must know understand that the lack of action in Syria really hurt the Obama Presidency, the Guardian has reported that the Oval might order strikes on terrorist targets in Iraq and Syria, the question is how will the US planes spot the terrorists, they will need spotters, that means troops on the ground, well to be more specific, US Special Forces and the CIA.   The more the US goes back in to Iraq the harder it will be to get out, the Democratic left will start to protest, this could become a major row between the Oval and those running in 2016.  Interesting times within the Democratic Party. 

Benghazi Suspected Captured in Libya - 2nd Term Blues

Fox News: Reports " Sources: Benghazi attack suspect captured, en route to US "

Lets Get Real:

This is good news for the Oval, President Obama polls should go up with this news, the downside is what the suspect says, if he says it was a terrorist operation and nothing to do with a vile video produced in the US then the Oval has a problem, on the other hand to get some brownie points the suspect might say that the Oval was right, it was down to a vile anti Islamic movie.   One can presume the the House Select Committee will be very interested to hear the real story about the attack.  On the whole this a net plus for the Oval Office, lets see how the story develops. 

The Price of Oil and Iraq - Iraq Crisis

Telegraph - Iraq Live: Reports " fighting moves closer to Baghdad as Iraq's biggest oil refinery shut down....Nearly 300 American forces positioned in and around Iraq "

Lets Get Real:

The more pressure there is on the oil market, e.g local prices for gas goes up, the more pressure on the Oval to hold the line in Iraq, the left of the Democratic Party has been quite so far, but how long before State left wingers start to be critical of Obama as Obama was critical of President Bush.   This is why politics is an art not a science, the fact that Obama is the 1st African - President, a historic moment in American and World history has shielded Obama from the political slings and arrows of attack.  But there are limits, if Obama has to send the troops back in with air cover the sound on the left with start to increase.   President Obama must accept something he does not want to hear, or do, he has no choice, he has to get more troops, call them whatever you want back in to Iraq, he can not afford to lose Iraq, the price would be to high, for the region and the World.   This is why Iraq is so serious for President Obama. 

More Boots on the Ground - Iraq Crisis

Guardian: Reports " ...officials told Reuters that the White House was considering sending a contingent of special forces to train and advise beleaguered Iraqi troops, many of whom have fled their posts in the face of the insurgency. "

Lets Get Real:

This has the smell of another Vietnam War in reverse, the gradual development of 2nd Iraq War, the Oval must know that IT can not afford to lose Iraq to a Al Qaeda franchise group, it would be a political and military disaster, the blame would fall on Obama for taking US troops out in 2011, even the liberal press could not protect him from the scathing reviews that would produce.    If Al Qaeda can take Baghdad it would show that the claim by Obama that Al Qaeda was finished was a major fraud, in essence the US voter was lied to in 2012.   Also on the economic front, the price of gas would go up, and Al Qaeda could have billions to play with, yes that kind of bad case study.   Iraq is serious, there are no good answers, just less evil choices.