The Swing States - US Election

Lets have a look at the two most important Swing States in the 2012 race folks, these are Florida and Ohio.  

Lets have a look at the RCP poll averages for these States.

Ohio: 

In the RCP average of State Polls we have the following, President Obama leads Governor Romney by 48.5% to 47.8, a 0.7% lead.

Sidebar: POTUS has taken so many visits to Ohio he should buy a house there, he or the VP are there that often.   As Ohio is part of the old industrial states there are Unions on the ground that will help POTUS in November. 

Florida:

In the RCP average of the State Polls we have the following, Governor Romney leads President Obama by 48.0%  to 47.3%, a 0.7% lead. 

Sidebar: The Obama team can afford to lose Florida, as long as they pick up Ohio they WIN.   They have much more of an easier path to a 2nd term.    The Jewish vote in Florida because of the tensions between POTUS and Israel might swing the State to Romney.   Also there is the Cuban vote that on the whole does not trust Democrats when it comes to Cuba.   Thus lets give Florida to Romney but Ohio to Obama, thus a 2nd Obama term. 

Romney vs. Obama - Gallup

Gallup ( LV ):  Reports on its daily tracking poll of likely voters, in today's poll Governor Romney leads President Obama by 49% to 47%. A 2% lead.

Lets Get Real:

The kind readers of this blog might be asking as this is Republican/Conservative Blog why it still thinks that President Obama is going to win, three reasons folks, in the next debate POTUS is going to come out fighting, nothing like a cornered Chicago Pol, thus expect a Reagan type comeback in 2nd debate.   The Democrats have collected multi millions in donations, also they have their ground game going, also with the help of the Unions in the Industrial States.    The Romney team has giving it a good fight, it will be close, but it will be 2nd term for POTUS but with a Republican House and Senate.   A good debate and a few good polls do not do a victory folks. 

Obama ATTACKS Romney on Foreign Policy - US Election 2012

Lets Get Real:

The Chicago Team Obama are very effective, they see a threat to the Oval over foreign policy and thus this attack advert.   The next Presidential debate is on foreign policy, on the whole the Oval has a good record from its view, thus they want make sure that Romney has a weak hand going in to the debate.   This is why Obama will get a 2nd term.   When you have to use the uber NYT as your support to attack Romney you know the advert is liberal lies, but effective liberal lies. 

Obama LIES about Romney's TAX PLAN - US Election

Lets Get Real:

This is a good advert by the Romney team, keeping hitting the Oval over its lies about the Romney tax plan.  The problem its to late folks, with early voting and the out spending by the Team Obama this election is over, it will be very close but Obama should WIN by a narrow margin.   Next time the Republicans have to finish their race early and hit the Democrats hard.  On the whole nice try by Team Romney. 

Romney on Obama's failed Foreign Policy - US Election 2012

The New York Times: Reports that Governor Romney attacked the foreign policy of the Obama Administration today, the Governor as the article notes, " ..criticized the president as lacking a comprehensive counterterrorism policy and failing to capitalize on the Arab Spring uprisings. ".

Lets Get Real:

As noted in previous blog post the major weakness for the Oval is the murder of the US Ambassador in Libya, the stonewalling about calling the attack on the US Consulate a terrorists attack does have a smell of a cover up.   The attack came on 9/11, a major theme of the Democratic Convention was that the Oval has killed OBL and that Al Qaeda was a spent force, the murders in Libya spoiled that message.    Thus the murders were blamed on anti Islamic tape.   This cover did not last, it seems that the Oval knew early that it was a terrorists attack.    Also the lack of security at the Consulate has become a major issue, why was there not enough security even after a request by the Ambassador.   This cover up has not reached the mind of the US voter, the success for the drones in Afghanistan and Pakistan has reached the general public, also the removal of troops from Iraq and the planned withdraw of US troops from Afghanistan in 2014.    The US voter is tired of constant WARS, thus no great appeal for another War, in this case with Iran.   Thus it can be argued that Oval is following the wishes of the voter, thus a 2nd term. 

The POLLS after the DEBATE - US Election 2012

Thus folks lets have a look at the US polls after the 1st Presidential Debate between President Obama and Governor Romney.

Rasmussen Reports (LV): In its daily tracking poll it finds that both President Obama and Governor Romney tied at 48%.

Gallup (RV): Reports in its daily tracking poll that President Obama leads Governor Romney by 50% to 45%, a 5% lead.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks it can be argued that the Debate on the whole has kept the race even, in Rasmussen Obama and Romney are tied when it comes to likely voters, when it comes to Gallup and registered voters we see a 5% lead for POTUS.   Thus the debate bounce for Romney was limited, and the good news on the job front has steadied the Obama boat.  It can be postulated that POTUS will come out fighting in the 2nd debate, and will do a Reagan of 84 and close down this race.   As the 2nd debate is about foreign policy one can expect that POTUS will stated that he gave the order to kill OBL and that the US is out of Iraq and is getting out of Afghanistan.   This is not 1980 when Iran held US hostages, on the whole Obama has a strong hand with foreign policy, the murder of the US Ambassador in Libya has not really made its way in to the mainstream of US voters.   Thus any cover up charges will look odd to US voters.   This blog is still predicting a narrow Obama WIN. 

US Unemployment Rate and the US Election

Telegraph: Reports the following on the surprise drop in the US unemployment rate, the article notes the following, " ..dropped to its lowest level in almost four years, giving President Barack Obama a boost as the presidential race enters its final month. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus the news cycle will now turn from disaster for the 1st Presidential debate for POTUS to  how good the economy is going, that will be the message of the of the uber liberal main stream media.    There will be talk that President Obama is following the path of Ronald Reagan in 84, that the next debate Obama will come out fighting.   As the news  was unexpected the left will be in praise of the news, while the right will argue that the figures are miss leading, that as stated 8 million Americans have given up looking for work since Obama become President, this will be made to sound like sour grapes by the left.   They will be wrong but it will work, politics is not fair folks, its called democracy.