Obama and Nevada

New York Observer: An article that looks at the election effect of Nevada. Looks at how Obama needs a win in Nevada. Very interesting article and to the point, Obama is the Outsider he needs a win, keep the process going, a loss in the view of the article would be bad for Obama and good for Clinton. I see the point. MUST READ OF THE DAY.

Nevada Prediction

I predict that Senator Hillary Clinton will win Nevada, only one poll has had Obama ahead in the state, the RCP Average of Polls has Clinton ahead by 3.7%. Has it is hard to poll a Caucus, it would be risky to predict the point spread, the difference between Clinton and Obama, it is all down to who turns up and how many and if Union support is effective for Obama. I think is safe to predict that that Clinton will win by 4 % to 7 % over Obama.

South Carolina Prediction

I am predict that Senator John McCain will win South Carolina, the latest polls ( recall my warning about political polls ) is up by 7% , on the whole Polls for Republicans are pretty accurate for the result. Thus if McCain wins by what margin, an estimation would be between 7 % and 10%. The RCP average is 4.9% for McCain, on the whole looking one can postulate from this that the winning candidate should get near the 10 % mark in the final result, if one looks at the previous election results.

New York Times v Bill Clinton

New York Times: The Liberal NYT is having at go at the temper of President Bill Clinton, they must be in the Obama camp.

South Carolina Polls

The Polls in South Carolina are getting close, the race looks like it is between Senator McCain and Governor Huckabee. Romney is the only campaign to have take an interest in the Nevada Caucus thus will win that fight. In South Carolina, we have two factors, Military veterans who should support McCain and religious supporters for Huckabee. The respected pollster Rasmussen has McCain and Huckabee at 24 % each, thus a very close race. A Mason - Dixon Poll ( pdf required ) has the following close result, McCain 27 % and Huckabee 25 %. The race is to close to call at this moment.

Update to New York Times Row

The Times: An article on the hiring of a, wait for it, cannon salute, a Conservative Writer for the once prestigious New York Times. I hope those that have opposed the hiring , read this article and show some remorse for their arrogance and lets be honest, show some morality of character and learn from this disgrace by those on the left.

Judge Rules on Nevada

Fox News: Reports that a Federal Judge has thwarted attempts by those that support Hillary Clinton to prevent those working in the service industry to vote at work. The attempt had all the aspects of old fashioned dirty politics. The Clinton machine is afraid its behind so what do they do, want to change the rules, not new for the Clinton Machine. This will make President Clinton even more annoyed. See previous post on his articulate temper tantrum. Lets hope the voters in Nevada send a message to the Bill and Hillary Clinton, you have to play by the rules, lets hope they vote for Obama.