Gallup: Reports that Obama is ahead of McCain by 5%. In the poll we have the following results, Obama 47% - McCain 42%. This shows I think that the polls that had Obama with over 10% lead over McCain have to be seen as outriders. Also as noted before, a close race does not help Obama, you have to discount about 3%-4% who don't tell the whole truth and say the will vote for Obama but don't at the end of the day.
Rasmussen: As with Gallup, Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 5%. The poll finds the following, Obama 49% - McCain 44 %. Obama if he is to win, needs to get a bigger margin, a safe margin over 10%. Thus if you get down to a close race, Obama could afford to lose a few points but still win in the long term. This race as has been noted is for Obama to lose, all the building blocks are there for him to win, but he needs to make a good VP choice, Hillary Clinton would help with older women.
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