Government of Pakistan on the Brink of Falling

The New York Times: Reports that measures taken by the Government of Pakistan have failed to stop the revolt. This could be the end for this present Government in Pakistan, the West should start to have intense talks with the political opposition and the Army. It might be time to shift support, always good to be on the winning side any political fight. The West has political and military interests in the region, thus the Obama Administration should keep any eye on Pakistan and Afghanistan, over the next few days. If Pakistan is becoming a failed state the Western Policy for the region is up in smoke. Lets not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear armed power, we don't want the terrorists to get their hands on nuclear missiles.

The Breakdown of Law and Order in Pakistan!

The Times: Reports on the actions of the Government of Pakistan under President Asif Ali Zardari, the political opposition has been arrested, the Army has has been bought in to to protect the Capital of Pakistan from the political apposition. Thus the crisis point will come in the next couple of days, if the Government of Pakistan can not hold the Capital its over, although the Government was elected recently if it falls it will show the power of the mob. This should worry the West, the USA and the UK should fear that the Taliban/Terrorists could fill the political vacuum caused by the rift in the political elite. If Pakistan comes a failed state then the US and UK are up a creek in Afghanistan, we need a stable Pakistan, no stable Pakistan the Terrorists win in the long term.

Is Pakistan Falling Apart ?

BBC News: Reports on the political crisis in Pakistan, the political opposition headed by Nawaz Sharif is going ahead with its planned Demonstration, against the wishes of the Government in Islamabad. The UK Times reported a few days ago that the head of the Army was trying to bring the political elite together, it does not seem to have worked. The West in the shape of the USA and the UK has to make sure that Pakistan does not become a failed state, the US and the UK should send their special envoys to the region, bang heads together, get a deal, if we have civil war in Pakistan the terrorists win. The War in Afghanistan and its success is based on the Government of Pakistan working with the West to bring the badlands on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan under government control. This is a critical time for the West, if need be the Army of Pakistan should take over, better a Military Leader who can control the country than a weak Democracy that allows the terrorists to win.

Wise Words from the Military in Pakistan

The Times: Reports that the Military in Pakistan has had words with the political elite in Pakistan, it seems that the Government and the political opposition are close to a political deal. Its seems the Military, the USA and the UK are playing a def hand in Pakistan. Lets be clear if Pakistan becomes a failed state the security of the West is at stake. As mention many times in this blog, no Pakistan Policy no real policy in Afghanistan. Thus the political elites have to share power, they have to fight the terrorists not appease them as they have done in the Swat Valley. The West, in this case the US and the UK has to give military support to the Army of Pakistan, it also has to win the hearts of the Tribal leaders in the badlands of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, this can be done through civic structure investment, get people back to work, help with the schools and hospitals and other welfare issues. Also lets get real, if we have to bribe a few Taliban/Terrorists to come over, so let it be. Thus the West has to be seen to help the people of Pakistan but also carry a stick, if Pakistan will not deal with the terrorists then the West will have to, this means the use of drones to bomb the terrorists in Pakistan, even the sending in of ground troops to clear the terrorists from the badlands. The next year could decide the future of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Death in Afghanistan

BBC News: Reports that another British Soldier has been killed in Afghanistan, the death total now stands at 150. Of that total 121 have died in Combat Operations, the other deaths have been due to accidents or illness or other incidents. This will not be the last death in Afghanistan, more will come, as day follows night, Afghanistan at the end of the operation could cost a lot more than Iraq. After all these deaths, one has to ask why our soldiers are not being payed more, why they don't have up to date equipment, why we don't have more troops in country to keep ground we have won. Also what is the EXIT route out of Afghanistan, what is the end game, how in the hell do we get out. The Obama Plan for Pakistan to get tough with the badlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan is not starter, no Foreign Power has ever been able to control this area, and the USSR did not play by our rules. Thus the operation is Afghanistan need new ideas, so far none are that great, just a different level of bad options. One hell of a war to get caught in, does recall World War One in some respects, in needed the USA to come to finish the job.

LBJ and Obama

The New York Times: Article by US Historian Robert Dallek on the LBJ first hundred days, how like Obama he faced the same problem, War and his Reforming Agenda. In many respects President Obama has it a lot worse, he has Afghanistan, a War the USA is not winning, and the only answer that the Obama White House has, is that Pakistan should be more firm with the badlands of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. As stated this will not work, the British at the time of the British Empire had problems, not a region you can control, its a law on to itself. Thus Afghanistan is a long term negative, on Iraq the news is better, the Bush Surge has been a bonus for Obama, the US should be out of Iraq by 2011. The Obama Administration is keeping between thirty five and fifty thousand troops in country in till 2011. It can be postulated that the US and Iraq will make a deal for after 2011. On Iran we have the prospect that it will go nuclear this year, thus either the US or Israel will have to hit Iran before the end of the year. Thus Iraq could blow up again should Iran take a hit from Israel and thus strike the US in Iraq. Thus we could have two hot wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and Iran, it has to be considered folks. Also we have North Korea about to launch a missile in April, if that goes wrong, we could see North Korea either launch missile attacks on South Korea or invade the Country. Also North Korea could hit Japan should Japan consider the Missile from North Korea a threat. Also we have the small problem that the economy of the west is in the toilet aka 1930s. Thus as stated Obama has a lot more problems, Vietnam does not look that bad now does it folks. Read of the Day.

Japan threat to North Korea

Guardian: Reports that Japan has threatened to shoot down the expect Missile launch from North Korea if that Missile is seen as a threat to Japan. Folks this could bet very serious, it only takes this missile to fail in flight and to fall on Japan, Japan would react by shooting down the missile, North Korea would blame Japan for the malfunction, they could take action by striking US troops in South Korea or hitting Japan. These kind of actions would force the hand of the Obama Administration, it would be another War for Obama to deal with, could this young President deal with, Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea at war, the threat of a nuclear Iran and the failure of Pakistan. It only takes two or three of these to go wrong and the World is in big trouble. The Obama Administration should make sure that Japan is not trigger happy, the US should have its own forces in the region in order to shoot down the missile should it be seen as a threat to Japan. The Obama Administration should send a clear warning to North Korea, launch this missile and it goes wrong, the US will shoot it down, any attacks on South Korea or Japan would be seen as a attack on the USA. April for Obama could make the Cuban Missile Crisis look like happy our at your local.