Bill Clinton Mark 11

The New York Times: Interesting article that looks at the tensions in Obama Administration between those that want a Obama Administration and not a Administration that is full of Clinton people. This does recall the Bush Administration in 2001, the Vice - President was Cheney, Chief of Staff to Gerald R. Ford, the Defense Secretary was Donald Rumsfeld, also a Chief of Staff for Ford and his Defense Secretary. Lets be honest the two people that have caused more political trouble for Bush 43 than Bush himself. Obama needs a clean slate, if the Obama Administration is full of Clinton people, one has to ask who will they be talking to in those Georgetown Parties. Lets recall LBJ kept the Kennedy people and thought their loyalty was to the Kennedy's. Thus Obama needs people with experience but he also needs people who own their loyalty to him.

The Pollsters and 08 Race

Texas on the Potomac: List of those pollster that got the result right. Read for future reference, remember 2012 only four years away. At the top for accuracy was Pew and Rasmussen. Read these four years down the line. Read of the Day.

They all need a Halderman !

BBC News: Reports that President - Elect Obama has asked Rahm Emanuel, a friend from Chicago, a Democratic Congressman and a former Aide of President Clinton to be his Chief of Staff. Emanuel is seen as tough character, a Democrat to his toes, the Republicans cant stand him, any change message of Obama would be undermined by the appointment of Emanuel from the view of Republicans. The President - Elect is making the right choice, the White House needs a tough Chief of Staff, not as tough as President's Nixon's Chief of Staff , H.R. Halderman, Watergate anybody, but a tough Manager who will make sure the Agenda of the President is served. If Mr Emanuel is appointed he will recall the mess made by the Clinton team of their transition in 1992. This is a good move by Obama, it should be noted that President Obama will have around eighteen months to get his Domestic Agenda through, as LBJ noted after that period the Congress will be up for re-election, if Obama is high in the polls they will support his Agenda, if the Presidents approval rating is in the toilet, George W. Bush, they will run as opposing the White House, a lot of Blue Dog Democrats in the House, in other words a Conservative Democrats. Thus the need for a tough Chief of Staff if not quite a Halderman.

Update: Mr Emanuel has accepted the post of Chief of Staff to President Obama. Obama has his tough Chief of Staff, but will the change message only come in to effect if you agree with Obama. It can be postulated that Mr Emanuel is the Gene Hunt to Obama's Sam Tyler. The question is will the Sheriff know that he is the Deputy. Also a tough Chief of Staff can cause more problems that he solves, it really depends, is Mr Emanuel good at Inter - Personnel skills, the job of Chief is to say No a lot, its better if those on the Hill don’t end up hating your Chief of Staff. Lets recall that Speaker O' Neill could not stand the Chief of Staff to President Jimmy Carter; he had a better relationship with the Reagan Staff.

Bush 43 on Obama

Courtesy of the White House: President George W. Bush talking to President Elect Obama.

4/11/08

The White House: President George W. Bush has stated the following on the transition period between his Administration and the Obama Administration, " There's important work to do in the months ahead, and I will continue to conduct the people's business as long as this office remains in my trust. During this time of transition, I will keep the President-elect fully informed on important decisions. ". This sounds like Bush telling Obama, okay you might be the President Elect but I am still President of the United States of America. A lot could happen in the next ten weeks, the surge in Iraq could falter, Iran might try and end run before Obama becomes President. In Afghanistan the Terrorists could try a Tet type offensive, in Middle East Israel could attack Iran, might think it better to attack while Bush is still President. Also the Bush and Obama Administrations still have to deal with the economic 9/11 affecting the banks and the market. Of course nothing might happen between November 5th and 20th January 2009, lets face it the West has not been that lucky of late, interesting couple of weeks ahead for Bush and Obama.

Death in Afghanistan

BBC News: Reports on the death of another British Soldier in Afghanistan. The total of British Deaths now stands at 122. This is the real world, its up to the new Obama Administration and PM Gordon Brown to come up with a winning strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan or find the Exit Door. Afghanistan will be one of the first tests for the new President, he wants a surge, great, what next, Afghanistan has buried a few soldiers from different countries, UK in the 19th Century, the Russians, who next UK again and the USA. Lets have new ideas, out of the box, we cant lose Afghanistan but we might not be able to win either, lets makes these High Ranking Officers earn their pay. New ideas Please for WINNING in Afghanistan.

The Final Result - US Election

At the end of the day my prediction was not wrong, Obama did win by 6%. The Margin was Obama 52% - McCain 46%. My prediction of Obama 53% - McCain 47% was 1% out. As not a professional pollster not a bad result. On the Electoral College result Obama gained more than in my prediction. the actual result was Obama 346 - McCain 163. My Prediction was Obama 311 - McCain 227. I did not see Obama taking Florida. Lets see when to start on 2012.

President - Elect Obama

A first great speech by the new President, but good rhetoric is okay for a Campaign, when President Obama is in Office, he will face having to deal with two wars, Afghanistan is becoming more dangerous for Western Troops, the terrorists are coming over the border from Pakistan, the Taliban has recovered, the UK Military and Diplomatic core cant see a win, they want to talk to the Taliban. In Pakistan the country is in a economic mess, it wants a bail out from the West, the West has its own problems. In Iraq the surge has worked, the UK wants out, we cant deal with Iraq and Afghanistan. The Government of Iraq will have to carry the load for its security, the USA and the UK cant fund them forever, thus Obama will need to get the troops out without causing a Civil War or Iran coming in to Iraq. On the Terrorist side, both Obama and McCain want to close down the terrorist holding base in American controlled Cuba. The problem that Obama will face is what you do with terrorists you cant send back home as they will be killed and if you cant release because they are a National Security Threat. As stated next year could very interesting, well President Obama wanted the job, lets see what kind of POTUS the 44th President of the United States will be, one request, please keep Biden in the Cheney Cave, he has foot in mouth syndrome, the White House needs a clear message, the President's Agenda does not need Vice - Presidents who think they should be President. I see a lot of travelling in the future of Vice - President Biden, he will collect a lot of Air Miles.