Shrum on the Polls

This Week: Bob Shrum argues in this article that the Democrats will win this time around, and that it will be the Republicans who will have the bad election night. This is the same Mr Shrum that has lost more Presidential Campaigns than I have had healthy dinners, I don't do healthy dinners!! Mr Shrum says your going to win Obama Campaign, get those volunteer's out now, have them work day and night, no weekend off. Obama will win, but there is a difference from a narrow win and a big win.

Lets Vote Reagan

BBC: Is running a Favourite President vote. Lets win one for the Gipper, Vote for Ronald Reagan as your favourite President. Click Here.

Somme Mud by E.P.F. Lynch ( Edited by Will Davies )

Have started to read Somme Mud, The Experiences of an Infantryman in France 1916 - 1919. Quick Review, Interesting Read, but it should be noted that the language used by Lynch is beyond the racial pale when discussing race. But it should also be noted that it was written by a man from the start of the last Century and who fought in the Battle of Somme. The views of today and the correct rejection of racist views by today's generation does not take away the story of Lynch and his fellow soldiers in the Trenches of World War One.

The Character Issue ?

Fox News: Reports that Senator Obama is taking a few days off the Campaign trail to visit his ill grandmother. This shows real character by Obama, in a fight for the Presidency taking hours or days off is a risk of losing that voter, but Obama is showing real character, hat off to you Sir.

Obama and a International Crisis

Fox News: Reports on another foot in mouth by another Joe, this time Joe Biden the Democratic VP nominee. The future Vice - President of the United States. Senator Biden has stated in a speech and front of a open mike, that Obama will face an International Crisis within the first six months of his Presidency. Lets be fair here, JFK and Cuba 1961, Reagan in 1981 was seen as more tough by Iran thus they sent back the Hostages from Iran just after the Reagan's Inauguration as President, Bush 41 the fall of the Berlin Wall, Clinton and Somalia and the first bombing of the World Trade Centre, Bush 43 and 9/11. These crisis showed the mantle and weakness of the candidates. Reagan was seen as so tough that Iran didnt want to deal with him thus after keeping Carter waiting they gave a gift to Reagan the moment he become President. It is a fair point that Biden makes, it can be argued that Afghanistan will be hot, the terrorists will try another Tet type attack there, the Obama's timetable for Iraq will allow the terrorists to up their attacks on American Troops. Also UBL might think this is the time to see if Obama has a back bone and hits the United States, how would Obama react to a major terrorist attack on the United States. Senator Obama has stated he will attack the badlands of Pakistan should the CIA find UBL hiding under a rock there, will he really attack a friend. The Government of Pakistan is weak, the credit crunch has hit the country hard, its looking for a bailout form the West, the problem is that the West has its own problems.

The next problem that could be faced by a young Obama Administration is if Iran goes nuclear and comes out of the closet with the bomb. This is the one thing Israel will not allow, will Obama Administration really prevent Israel from attacking Iran, will a President Obama go Iran in his first year without preconditions. Thus Senator Biden has a point, the kitchen could very hot, but Obama wanted the job now. Also we have seen Obama on the trail, he has seemed calm and confident, highly intelligent, warmth might be an issue, he needs some Hollywood help with that issue. Thus Obama will know that if wants a second term he can not be another Jimmy Carter, weakness does not go down well with the voters in a crisis. Pure politics can someone please tell Biden to shut up he is not helping, this is the kind of issue that the McCain Camp will have an advert out in hours if not a day.

Bailout 2

The Times: Reports on comments by Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke, in essence after the Wall Street Bailout, Main Street will have to bailed out, money will have to pumped in to the system as to get people spending. In other words a Refreshed New Deal , aka FDR. The problem with that point of view is the fact that it was not the New Deal of FDR that got the USA out of the Great Depression but World War Two. Another bailout would make the USA the new sick of the Western System, the government can not bail everyone out, tough but honest. Think a President Obama and a Liberal Congress and how much damage they will do your pocket book.

Obama's Big Win

The Washington Post: Reports how the Media has elected Obama before the November 4th Election. As predicted in this blog, it can be postulated that the result will be as follows, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. I would suggest that the media wait till the election before getting ready for the Obama Inaugural Parties. Lets recall history, who recalls the Republicans winning in 1948 or the British Labour Party winning in 1992, the polls said they would win, and what happened President Truman won a second term and PM John Major won a fourth term for the Conservative Party. On the academic side am very interested if there is a Bradley Effect, it will clear up the issue once and for all, do voters lie to pollsters that they are going to vote for an African - American Candidate but then vote for the other candidate. Also the elite media should be careful, one thing that really annoys a voter is being told who has won, Obama is going to win but lets allow the voter to cast the ballot not the press.