Final Predictions for the Mid Term Elections in the United States on the 7th of November 2006

Well folks it’s predicting time, who are going to be the winner and losers this election cycle.

Interesting article in the Washington Post, way down in the article it mentions that the generic polls is now 45 – 51 in favour of the Democrats. It should be noted that the article gives the impression that the election is a done deal, I would expect more from the Washington Post.

Here comes VIEWS prediction on House Seats. I will use the following guides, Democratic Pick Up, and 50/50. As it is about how many seats the Democrats can pick up to take the House, I will look at these and any seats they might have at risk. As a guide I have used the Seats suggested by RCP.

DPU

Arizona 8
Pennsylvania 10
Colorado 7
Ohio 18
New York 24

50/50 Personal View

Texas 22 ( R Hold )
Florida 16 ( R Hold)
Indiana 8
Pennsylvania 7
Iowa 1
North Carolina 11 (R Hold )
New Mexico 1

The Above are from RCP list of leaning Democrat / 12, Views has DPU 5 in the Bag, in the 50/50 Range I have the Republicans holding the Delay and Foley Seat, that places 4 in the 50/50 range.

The next section is based on the Seats that RCP places in the 50/50 range.


DPU

Ohio 15
Connecticut 4

50/50 PV

Indiana 2 ( R Hold )
Pennsylvania 6
New York 26 (R Hold)
Indiana 9 (R Hold)
Florida 13 ( R Hold)
Connecticut 5
Illinois 6
Minnesota 6 ( R Hold)
New York 20
Ohio 1 ( R Hold)
New Hampshire 2 ( R H)
Arizona 5 ( R H)

Overall Views has the Democratic Pick up at 7 in the bag. The Republicans holding 8 by a slight margin and in the 50/50 margin, 4 Seats. This would give the Democrats 11 Seats, 4 short of Control in the House. If you add the Four seats left from above, that would give them a control.

On the RCP there are two Democratic Seats that are in the 50/50 range: Views sees the following going to the Republicans, Georgia 12,

Thus if you follow the political polls, the Democrats are heading for a wave a new seats in Congress, VIEWS has a different view, here goes, the Republicans hold both Champers. If you are a Republican in the seats I have discussed could you please VOTE for the Republican Candidate or else Views will have to say Bill Clinton was a great President. And that would be beyond a nightmare for this political geek, so VOTE and VOTE Republican.

Congressional Mid Term Elections 2006

An interesting article on why Bush might be confident for the Mid Terms Elections, Click here for The Allen Report.

If one thing is more fun for political geeks than future elections is looking at past elections and why candidates lost, interesting article on the latest John Kerry foul up, explains why he lost in 2004, Click here for CNN Article. The article states the following, ‘ Republicans unleashed a firestorm of criticism Tuesday against Sen. John Kerry after the Vietnam veteran told college students they'd "get stuck in Iraq" if they didn't work hard in school. ’ The Article states that Kerry had wanted to say something else, another flip flop.

Interesting Article in the Congressional Quarterly on the Mid Term Elections, the article states the following, ‘ The growing probability that the Democrats will win control of the House on Nov. 7, and still have a chance at the taller order of capturing the Senate as well, has hardly caught the political class by surprise. ’ Click here for full Article.


An article in the Washington Times on the expectations game for the Mid Term Elections, Click here for Full Article.

If you only read one Article, VIEWS would recommend this article in the Washington Post, while VIEWS might not agree on their numbers, they are worth a look and gives the political geek something to ponder, Click here for Article.

An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal on the recent development of early voting, the article states the following, ‘ Republicans say they have some good news in early-voting statistics that suggest their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races. ’ Click here for full Article.



Well the season for polls has arrived; we have polls for the same House Seat, which show different, and opposite results that cover the same days. Thus over the next few days VIEWS before the election is going to smell the Coffee and let his political gut lead him to make his final predictions for the Mid Terms. Views will make his prediction on the Monday before the election, and should he be wrong by a large margin he will write in his next blog that President Bill Clinton was a great President. As Views has no wish for this great calamity he will try to give an honest and objective opinion based on his reading of the political environment and the dreaded political Polls.

Mid Term Elections, End of October 2006

Here us the latest poll from Missouri, a state that could decide who controls the US Senate:

Missouri: Talent ( R ) 47% - 47% McCaskill ( D )

The fight over stem cell research seems to have helped the Democratic candidate get to even, can it get her over the top in November is another question.

Some interesting articles on the US Mid Term Elections for your Sunday viewing:

Is Bush Alone, Time Article, In essence the article states that the President is a problem to his Republican Candidates and the future depends on how much seats the Democrats win. A narrow majority a limited action, a large majority more problems for the President. The Article states that the Administration will use all the administrative powers of the Presidency to gain its agenda.

The Political Plan of Karl Rove, LA Times Article , the article main point being that the Republicans might be down but they are not out just yet.

The Money game in Politics, Washington Post Article , the article states the following on the political TV adds that will be produced by both Parties, ‘ Most of the ads will be dark and accusatory ’ As the article points out, the right political plan followed could decide who controls the House for the next two years.

A Hung Parliament, Sorry Hung House of Representatives

An interesting article by Michael Barone today, he writes the following, ‘ My predictions would produce an almost evenly divided House: 219 Democrats, a net gain of 16, and 216 Republicans. ’ As this would very slim majority, and VIEWS recalls the Majority of around 21 John Major had in 1992, that went fast one way or another. Thus a massive shift would become a day-to-day battle to gain a majority for new ideas to get passed. As the Speaker Nancy Pelosi, would have to balance the demands of the far left on the Democratic side of the Party with the voting power of those on the conservative side of the Party, they do still have some. As with the lose of votes over the two years, it could place President George W. Bush in a very interesting position. Speaker Pelosi might need President Bush more than George W. Bush needs a helpful Speaker. The Democrats if this prediction came true would not have the majority to overrule a Presidential Veto, thus if they wanted to get anything done and have a chance of keeping a majority they would have to work with the White House, that’s why Democracy is interesting if not perfect.

Some new Senate Polls, have come out, Tennessee, Bob Corker (R) is at 49% compared to 44% for Harold Ford ( D ) RCP average is Corker up by 3%. In Missouri, two Polls have Jim Talent ( R ) up by 3% , they both place Jim Talent at 48% and his Democratic Opponent, Claire McCaskill at 45% , the RCP average is Talent up by 1% . In Virginia we have two different Polls, one has George Allan ( R ) up by 4% over his Democratic Opponent James Webb, but another Poll has Webb ahead of Allen by 3%. The RCP average has Allen ahead by 1.8%. RCP has the Democrats taking four seats in the Senate; they are two short for control of the Senate.

Does Money matter more that Polls

An interesting article on the Mid Term Elections that argues that the Republicans will hold on to Congress based on how much money they have as a back up before election day, Click Article. VIEWS is in two minds about this issue.

A Counter view to this argument on Power Line, Click Article.

A look at the recent AP reported Polls on the Mid Terms.

The New York Times on the Outlook held by Democrats going in to Mid Term Elections.

The Washington Post on the latest political attack used by Karl Rove on the Democrats.

Dr Who Awards

Folks it’s that time of year again, time to vote for the National Television Awards on ITV. In the final round we have Billie Piper and David Tennant for Dr Who and Dr Who for Best Drama, Click NTA to VOTE

American Politics Update for October

Is Pelosi a non show for Speaker, interesting article in the Conservative Washington Times, Click here

All the talk has been about how many seats the Republicans would lose in the House, what about the Democrats, an interesting race in Indiana / 7. The Republican leads by three points, 45 -42

The VIEWS has been checking out the House races, based on his last look at the all FIFTY RACES on RCP, so far the Democrats seem to be odd on favourites to win 10 off the bat. Then VIEWS has 9 Seats in the 50/50 bracket. If the Democrats take all the Seats and don’t lose any they will have a majority of three or four. It should be noted the Race in Indiana, if the Republicans take just a few Seats that magic number of 15 goes up. But considering the toxic waters at the Moment, Congressional Scandals and Iraq, it would be almost like 1948 and the one and only Harry S. Truman coming back when he was seen as dead in the Water by the political elite.

VIEWS has been looking at the following as possible upsets in the House Race, these have been seen as automatic Dem pick ups considering recent events: Texas 22, Florida 16, it would be interesting if the Republicans put their up and coming operatives in to the Races and got the Vote out in November, more Seats the Republicans can hold the more the Democrats need to gain.