Friday, April 18, 2014

What does Putin want in Eastern Ukraine? - Ukraine Crisis Latest


Lets Get Real:

This is Russian testing the US and the EU, the Kremlin is waiting to see if the West has the bottle to place painful sanctions on Russia, if not then the Kremlin will see it as the green light to take the whole of the Ukraine.   The Russians have one ACE, they supply gas to Germany and other close States, if they turn the tap off then these Countries will suffer on the economic front, the long term loser would be Russia, a break of gas would force these Countries to get other supplies or start to produce their own, its a one shot deal for Russia, if the West calls its bluff then Russia  might be the biggest loser. 

US and the UK on the Ukraine - Ukraine Crisis Latest

The White House: Readout of telephone call between President Obama and PM Cameron of the UK, The President and Prime Minister Cameron of the United Kingdom spoke today regarding their deep concern about the situation in eastern Ukraine.  The President commended the government of Ukraine’s approach to today’s discussions in Geneva, where it put forward constructive proposals to expand local governance and ensure the rights of all Ukrainians are protected.  The leaders stressed that Russia needs to take immediate, concrete actions to de-escalate the situation in eastern Ukraine, including by using its influence over the irregular forces in eastern Ukraine to get them to lay down their arms and leave the buildings they have seized.  As the President has said, we will look for the Russians to quickly follow through on their commitments in Geneva in this regard.  The President and the Prime Minister agreed that the United States and Europe are prepared to take further measures to impose costs on Russia if this de-escalation does not occur in short order. ".

Lets Get Real:

The EU main players, Germany, France and the UK, have to take action if Russia fails to get its supporters to leave the buildings they hold in East Ukraine, the EU could forbid EU companies from doing business in Russia, also freeze the assets of rich Russians who have residence in the EU.   The Putin Regime can be bought  down, the EU and the US have to have the backbone to get REAL, take the economic pain and force Putin to face the results of his actions, otherwise the EU and NATO will have to safeguard its Eastern Allies with troops. 

Is the Geneva Ukraine DEAL, DOA on Arrival - Ukraine Crisis Latest


Lets Get Real:

If the pro Russian protesters in the East of Ukraine do not give up the buildings they have taken and give back the guns they stole then we know that Russia was playing games in Geneva, of course there could be an internal struggle between the Kremlin and its Foreign Office, it would not be the first country to have that problem, it has happened in the UK and the USA.  President Putin does not come across as a guy that likes his orders questioned, thus one has to assume that it was a Kremlin play to get the West to back off, thus the agreement by the Russians to the Geneva Agreement, pure PR, the Russians want the entire Ukraine.   Thus WHAT NEXT, the West has to be serious, thus more sanctions, the kind that really hurt, ban US business from Russia and also EU Countries will have to accept pain, Putin has to be bought to heel and fast. 

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Obama on Ukraine - Ukraine Crisis Latest 2

The White House: Reports on a readout of a telephone call between President Obama and Chancellor Merkel of Germany, the subject was the Ukraine, " The President and Chancellor Merkel of Germany spoke today regarding their deep concern about the situation in eastern Ukraine.  The President commended the government of Ukraine’s approach to today’s discussions in Geneva, where it put forward constructive proposals to expand local governance and ensure the rights of all Ukrainians are protected.  The leaders stressed that Russia needs to take immediate, concrete actions to de-escalate the situation in eastern Ukraine, including by using its influence over the irregular forces in eastern Ukraine to get them to lay down their arms and leave the buildings they have seized.  The President and the Chancellor agreed that the United States and Europe are prepared to take further measures if this de-escalation does not occur in short order.  The leaders also stressed their support for Ukraine’s May 25 presidential elections. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The readout of the call has a tone that suggests that neither the US or Germany TRUST the Russians when it comes to the Ukraine, they have been burned in the past by Russia, there is a difference between what Russia states and what it does, Putin is a skilled manipulator, he gets his Ministers to say what the West wants to hear then he does something else, as noted in his talk today the Russian President stated that he still had the authority to take action when it comes to a threat to Russians.   This weekend is VERY important, will the pro Russian protesters give up the buildings they have taken, and give up their arms, will Russia keep its bear nose out of the Ukraine, we should know by Sunday. 

Kerry on Geneva Ukraine DEAL - Ukraine Crisis Latest


Lets Get Real:

The above is the point, do pro Russian protesters in Easter Ukraine follow the public Moscow stand, or is the Geneva just PR for the Russians, gets the West off its back for few days then invades, is Moscow fully in control of the pro Russians protesters in East Ukraine, once you start something like this its very hard to turn back the clock, depends what the Russian intelligence has promised the Russians in Eastern Europe, will they go back to be run from Kiev, the weekend shall see the results of the DEAL, does it stick, one only has to recall Bosnia.  

The Geneva Deal on the Ukraine - Ukraine Latest


Lets Get Real:
IF the pro Russian protesters leave the taken building then we will know that Russia was behind the WHOLE business, on the other hand this could be a Russian faint to fool the West with the PR of a deal but tell its supporters to keep hold of the captured buildings.   Lets see if Moscow's word can be trusted, so far they have shown that their word can not be trusted.  Why would they back down, they can not be afraid of Obama, are the economic sanctions working, do Putin's rich friends fear tougher sanctions from the US and the EU, the Easter Weekend will tell, can the Russian Bear be trusted. 

Geneva Deal on Ukraine - Ukraine Latest


Lets Get Real:

Talk is CHEAP, lets see what actions the Russians take, do they get their men the hell out of East Ukraine, do the cease supporting native Russian speakers, do they keep their nose OUT of the affairs of the Ukraine.  There is always a BUT with the Russians, lets see what the others in the TALKS say about the meeting, the Russian bear always tries its lucky to far, that why it needs sometimes a slap on its nose.   This could be easy talk before an invasion, as Reagan said, Trust but Verify.