Obama and Iraq and Afghanistan

WSJ: A great article in the WSJ on the possible benefits of keeping a good USA presence in Iraq and going slow on the surge in Afghanistan, the article states the following, " Here's the lose-lose scenario: Allow Iraq to deteriorate by withdrawing too soon and push into Afghanistan without a better strategy. " Lets hope the President Obama takes the time to read this article, he could be on to a winner with Iraq, also he needs a long study on the idea of a surge in Afghanistan, also read a few books on the bad time the Empire had in Afghanistan. There is no reason to be another LBJ, he has to the time, if he gets out of Iraq to fast, the place could fall apart, Iran could come in and then he will be Jimmy Carter Mark 11 but worse. Think if Iran controls the oil from Iraq. Also the terrorists could be waiting for more troops for Afghanistan to come from the USA, and the have a Tet style offensive. Think Obama could have two hot wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a terrorists threat to the homeland. Also the surge wont work thus we could have another Great Depression, that could be the future, thus good idea for Obama to start to read the WSJ.

"Americans are not your enemy" - President Obama

Courtesy of the White House. President Obama

The White House: Reports on the first interview given by President Obama to a Arab TV Station. The President stated the following, " My job is to communicate to the American people that the Muslim world is filled with extraordinary people who simply want to live their lives and see their children live better lives....,My job to the Muslim world is to communicate that the Americans are not your enemy. " Lets see if this makes any difference, its not in the interest of Iran or the terrorists groups in the region for everyone to shake hands be friends. That's not the real world. The news that Iran will have the bomb by the end of the year means President Obama might not have the time he thinks he has to solve the problems of the Middle East, a crisis between the USA and Iran could come this year. Think in the near future, its 3am and the National Security Advisor rushes to the President with the news that Iran has set off her first nuclear device, Israel has picked up the blast and the planes are in the air to attack Iran. In the near future the USA still has enough troops in Iraq for Iran to strike the friend of Israel. Then what President Obama ?

Freedom of Information and Iraq

BBC News: Reports that the Government has lost an attempt to block a request under the Freedom of Information for Cabinet Minutes that lead up to the War in Iraq. The UK Government has to appeal, the Cabinet system only works if advice in Cabinet is kept under the thirty year rule. This is a matter of a National Security, even if the Government should lose all the appeals it should block the release, get an Enabling Act through the House of Commons if need be to prevent release these minutes.

Obama and Afghanistan and the US Surge

The New York Times: Reports on the paradox that faces the Obama Administration when it comes to the holding of terrorists, President Obama has stated that Guantanamo Detention Centre will close within a year, but what about terrorists held in Afghanistan, and with the surge of US troops, more troops more combat more terrorists held, thus the paradox. Obama cant have it both ways, if you have a surge in Afghanistan there will be more combat operations, you have to hold the terrorists, if you release them after you capture them the US voter will turn on the Obama Administration. Also since the War in Afghanistan is a War without End, how long will you hold the terrorists, forever, the Liberals in the USA will not be happy, thus Obama will be back in Bush land sooner or later. The problem with a paradox is that there is no solution, thus Obama might wished he had stayed in the US Senate. There has been a slight tendency in the Media to see Obama as the Secular Second Coming, he could turn out to be the next LBJ, LBJ had his Liberal Programme of the Great Society, Liberals loved that part, what destroyed the plan was Vietnam. Obama has made simple political mistakes, the Liberal Media so love Obama they fail to see the politics, Obama won the Presidential Election due to the economic crisis, what has he being doing of late, giving rights to terrorists and making the green lobby happy. The left will be happy, but the Reagan Democrats who voted for Obama want him to keep his eye on three issues, Economy, Economy, Economy. In 1981 in the Reagan Administration made sure that the Secretary of State did not make Communist threat a major issue due to the economy being the major issue that the Administration wanted to deal with in the first months of the Administration. Thus Obama is making a political mistake by placing his political capital on so many different issues, he should have left the Gitmo issue till later also the Middle East, they are not vote getter's on the broad spectrum and can be vote losers on the whole, also the Obama Economic Plan is also a mistake, he stated he would not allow pork in the plan, its full of Congressional Pork. Thus BHO might turn out be the next LBJ. If your a Conservative that's not bad, we did get majority Republican Presidents after that, starting with Nixon, followed by Ronald Reagan and of late Bush 43.

Iran and the Bomb

Sky News: Reports that Iran will have a single nuclear bomb by the end of the year. This time was going to come, this issue could define the Obama Administration. Thus the need for direct talks with Iran, but not for Diplomacy but in a message, once they cross the line of becoming a nuclear power, Israel will hit them hard, there is nothing the USA can do to prevent that outcome in less Iran backs off its plan to become a nuclear power. If Iran was to take a more sensible road, a block on becoming a nuclear power it could follow the road of Libya and return to the International Community. The joker in the pack is the President of Iran who up is for election this year, what a way to win an election but to announce to the World that Iran is a nuclear power. This could place President Obama in a tight spot, the left equal Iran and Israel, as they would both have the bomb, on the other side their is the Jewish Lobby in American politics, this Lobby will support Israel if she takes out the nuclear platform of Iran. Expect fireworks folks!

VP Biden on Afghanistan and Death Toll of US Troops

LA Times: Reports that Vice - President Biden has stated that the US should expect more deaths in Afghanistan, due to the planned surge of troops in Afghanistan. The reported surge of between twenty and thirty thousand troops, will make Afghanistan Obama's War. The War in Iraq has seen the US lose according to icasulaties.org 4,236 US Service Personnel, while the War in Afghanistan has seen according to icasulaties.org the loss of 641 US Service Personnel since 2001. In other words the War in Afghanistan has been under the screen, after the US withdraw from Iraq over the next sixteen months, the press attention will move to the badlands of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. It can be asked how long will the US voter take a high body count coming out of Afghanistan. This is a chance for Obama not to make the same mistake as LBJ did over Vietnam. Its not a great idea to send thousands of new troops to Afghanistan, if it was a War the West could win, this blog would support it, still think the War in Iraq was a just War, also at the end of the day it was winnable, also lets not forget it might be more easy to get in to Iraq than to leave, it would be a disaster for Obama if Iran took over Iraq, a war won turned in to a defeat would not go down well with the voter. Also its a matter of definition, Obama has stated that he wants combat troops out of Iraq, a combat troop can be redefined if need by the Army Chiefs. Iran will be looking for weakness from Obama. Lets recall the Cuban Missile Crisis developed due to the idea that JFK was weak after the Failure of the Bay of Pigs in 61 and the frosty summit meeting between the Kennedy and Khruschev. Thus when it comes to Iran and Afghanistan, its more than the exchange of troops from one battlefield to another its how its perceived in the region and the reaction of Iran. Thus in 2012 if Iraq goes down the toilet and Afghanistan is even more of a mess the blame will be at the door of President Obama.

Obama, LBJ and Afghanistan

Salon: Interesting article on how President Obama is making the same mistake that LBJ did over Vietnam. As noted in previous post it can be argued that this is the time for the West to get out of Afghanistan, places bases around Afghanistan, when a terrorists threat or base is found then bomb. This would follow an old Imperial Policy, this worked on the whole in the region.