New Hampshire

If and this is a capital IF, Clinton lost in Iowa it would come down to New Hampshire, this would be make or break time, here is a Poll from the cbs4boston.com

On the Democratic Side:

Clinton 40 %

Obama 25 %

Edwards 23 %

If Edwards could win Iowa and Obama come in second, Hillary would have a tough fight in New Hampshire. As said it is a very very Big IF.

On the Republican Side:

Giuliani 33 %

McCain 32 %

Romney 21 %

The Republican Race for political geeks might just be the better race to cover, the points are so close, more of a horse race.

2008 Election Polls

The Latest Presidential Polls, Quinnipiac University Poll: Ohio

Senator Hillary Clinton leads her Democratic rivals, here are the figures: Democratic Voters:

Clinton 38 %
Obama 13 %
Edwards 11 %
Gore 6 %

It should be noted we are year out, as Harold Wilson once said and it is always true of Politics, A WEEK IS A LONG TIME IN POLITICS.

On the Republican side we have the following Results:

Giuliani 30 %
McCain 22 %
Gingrich 11 %
Romney 4 %

Views has this feeling that the fight could really be between Romney who try and appeal to the Republican base and McCain who needs to work on the base for them to trust him. Giuliani might a heroic figure after 9/11 might just have to much personal baggage and his politics could be to much in the centre for the Republican base.

The General Election Match Up: Views found these polls interesting, even with Iraq, Hillary Clinton leads all her Republican opponents but not by much. Here are the Figures:

Clinton 46% - McCain 42%
46% - Giuliani 43%
52 - Romney 31% ( Romney at early stages here )

If Clinton cant get over 50% with McCain or Giuliani she cant win the White House, and she is way behind the field in Iowa, Edwards seem to have moved there since 2004, Senator Hillary Clinton is not Bill Clinton, if she cant win Iowa she might be finished before we get to NH.

On the Republican side the only winning combination is as follows:

McCain 41 % - 38 % Obama. Views sees Obama as another John Edwards from 2004, he needs a few more years in the Senate.

Iraq and the Senate

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee had its sound bite in opposing the War, but all fury and no teeth, they might be right but what if they are wrong. The Vote was passed by 12 - 9.

CNN on the Senate Foreign Relations Commitee vote and implications for the future. In essence the road ahead will be a real battle between politics and military reality.

The Speech and the Press

An Interesting and fun article by the Washington Post on the Speech, and more important fair, not something you find in the elite Media. The different views from the Republicans and Democrats is best described by the article at the end, " Cheney and Pelosi stood side by side, looking forward, not knowing quite what to say. " It was fun watching the Vice President and the Speaker standing when they agreed with something and not, staying put in their Seat when the other got up.

As you would expect of the New York Times, it was Iraq and Iraq, NYT managed to say something nice , " For a man who finds himself struggling to maintain public and political support, Mr. Bush delivered the speech in a confident tone, with easy and relaxed smiles. " But it but the boot in at the end, " But the Democrats have been in control only a few weeks, and polls indicate that for now the public is more likely to side with them in a fight. And it is not clear that Mr. BushÂ’s new proposals would do anything to reverse the political balance of power. " In other words the President will fail and the Democrats have the whip hand.

In Newsweek, the President former Speech writer saw the speech as a plus for Bush and a negative for the Democrats, as if he would say anything else.

The Boston Globe states the following on the Speech, " On domestic policy, the president's words were conciliatory. But he is still going it alone in Iraq, losing even many in his own party. " As we are talking of the state that has Ted Kennedy and John F. Kerry as their Senators no great news here.

The Elite Media was never going to give Bush a fair hearing, but on the whole the Speech was good, the President is no Ronald Reagan, but then few Presidents are, it will be interesting to see how the great public of the USA react to the Speech.

Quick Review of State of Union Speech

The Speech in the first half was a basket list of good ideas on the domestic front, this might play well with the American People, Bill Clinton pulled a similar trick when he was in trouble and it worked, we shall se what the elite Media think over the next few hours and days. On the International Front, the President Stood Tall, the Gipper would be proud of him, we shall see if it works.

As mentioned the speech should be seen within the context of speech of previous Presidents in their Seventh year, links down below to Reagan, Clinton and to todays Speech by President George W. Bush.

The State of the Union 2007

The State of the Union 1998 and 1999 ( The Period covered by Monica Lewinsky Scandal )

The State of the Union 1987

The State of the Union 2007

Courtesy of the White House

The President's Address to Congress in 2006.

The State of the Union this year can be bracketed in those given by Richard Nixon during Watergate, Ronald Reagan after Iran - Contra Affair story broke and Bill Clinton after his personal Scandal broke. This post will look at what the American Media is saying about the Address tonight:

Press Briefing on the State of the Union Speech - White House

2007

State of the Union Policy Initiatives - White House

Interesting in the Speech the President will state the following on the War on Terror and Iraq:

• War On Terror/Iraq: The challenge playing out across the broader Middle East is more than a military conflict – it is the decisive ideological struggle of our time. For the safety of our people, America must succeed in Iraq, and the President believes his new Iraq plan is the best way to succeed. Tonight, the President will propose to establish a special advisory council on the War on Terror made up of leaders in Congress from both political parties.
  
  
  Strengthening Our Military: Tonight, President Bush will ask Congress for authority to increase the overall strength of our active Army and the Marine Corps by 92,000 Soldiers and Marines in the next five years.

The President is trying an interesting ploy, after the Surge make the Democrats part owners of the plan they oppose to a man or woman.

Aspects of the State of the Union Speech. Real Clear Politics

The Media and the State of the Union Speech.

Time on the Speech: " Bush won't spend much time tonight talking about surging troops in Iraq or the Global War on Terror. Instead, he'll put forward what for him will be progressive and bold policy proposals on health care, the environment and immigration reform. " Time does not think this work, a great breaking news story there, after all the Media Elite dont like Bush.

CNN on the Speech: Is Bush already a lame duck? have a wild guess which side CNN is on, they had Carter on Sunday giving advice on Foreign Policy, give me a break. The worst President since Hoover.

IBD on a State of the Union Speech in 7th Year of A Presidency. If you go to one article go and read this, fun and to the point.

Off Subject?: Dating London Women!

In the age group between 29 -45, Views has found that London WOMEN are timid, no one is perfect, but in that age group they seem to need you to tick every box, what happened to being nice, considerate, Happy, a gentleman, always smiling and not a Player.