The Truth and Politics and Iraq

Courtesy of the White House

The President with the Cabinet this Morning.

The President has stated that the New Democratic Leaders will be given all the information they need as to form policy. The question is if you’re a Democrat is it better to have all the information or plead that you didn’t know. Easy to plead that if not in power, but the Democrats are now in control of Congress. They have their Seat at the Table; in 2008 will that be a bonus or a major hindrance to the Democratic Nominee. Yes Folks the 2008 Election starts NOW. If you’re a political geek this is great, if not a political geek why not!!

Interesting Articles on the Election Aftermath

Courtesy of the White House, from left to right.
Secretary Rumsfeld, President George W. Bush and Robert Gates.
The President announced the Resignation of Secretary Rumsfeld and the Nomination of Robert Gates as his successor.

The Presidential Statement: Click here

Article in Slate on Robert Gates, the Nominee for Secretary of Defense, Click here.

Robert Novak Article on Robert Gates, Novak points out that Gates in the past tried to keep Intelligence ‘pure’, in other words not slanted to fit policy requirements, interesting. Click here.

The return of Bush 41, Interesting article on the perceived return of the Advisors of 41 to fix the mess of 43. Click here.

Article in the New York Times on Robert Gates, for the NYT almost supportive! Click here.

Another positive article this time from the Washington Post, Click here.

Politics is a mean Business

Mr Rumsfeld out, Enter Mr Gates. An interesting article in Time on the New Secretary of Defense, Click here.

Brief Overview of the Election Result

Thus as of writing this brief overview, the Democrats have taken the House and are two seats short of taking the Senate, two Seats are still outstanding. Thus the question why, with the exception of Iraq the Unites States at the moment is going through a great financial period, low inflation and unemployment, the Stock Market is going through the roof, the 1920s again. And after 9/11 no terrorist attack on the United Stats or her interests around the world, this not including Iraq. Thus the cautionary tale of Sir Winston Churchill in 1945.

After five years as Prime Minister and the defeat of Germany in 1945, the election of 1945 was seen as an easy victory for Churchill, of course we had the Labour government in 1945. 9/11 happened five years ago, no attack since, the terrorists have been removed from Afghanistan; the group has morphed in to a franchise operation with independent operators in different parts of the world. Thus they are harder to find as we saw by 7/7, but also they are less organized to plan a massive terrorist attack. It can be argued that UBL and ‘ The Base ’, his terrorist group, where are at their height pre 9/11, after 9/11 the group and its leaders and its supporters where either caught, killed or returned to their homes and hid their guns till they came back to fight British Forces over the last few years.

Thus we come to Iraq, it has to be asked with all the information we have now, what would have been the right policy to have when it comes to Iraq. As Iraq had no Weapons of Mass Destruction it has to be asked from a British point of view if the loss of 121 troops was worth the cost in sacrifice of our brave troops. Pre Iraq was many supported the government based on its argument that Iraq had WMD and it could be used in short order. Thus after 9/11 the wait and see policy was not an option, those that support a tough security policy supported the government based on the information it has been given, and saw those that opposed such action as weak if no appeasers, it can be argued that those that opposed the War had a point if only in a narrow manner that other options should be considered. The guilty sentence on its former leader can be argued made the war a right policy decision. Our troops are fighting a noble mission, we cant walk away that would be weak.

Thus the Mid Term Elections in many respects has given the USA and the UK a get out clause, the Democrats want change, well this is a chance for President Bush, they want to seat at the table, well drag them in and force them to take a stand, force the fissions with the Democratic Party, between the cut and run lot, that policy would hand the terrorist a victory that would cost the west for years, those that want to divide Iraq, any one with a brief knowledge of history should recall the death and destruction that was caused by the British division of India and Pakistan, not our finest hour. Those that want to put an Iraq face on the military, in other words to use the old American policy from Vietnam, and that didn’t work out well as we all now, that was a disaster for Vietnam and for the countries around Vietnam.

The above just shows there are no great options for Iraq, lets hope the Baker Report has a get out clause for the USA and the UK and one that the Democrats cant run away from, they wanted to win so they own the results.

Oh!!

Bill Clinton was a great President

Final Predictions for the Mid Term Elections in the United States on the 7th of November 2006

Well folks it’s predicting time, who are going to be the winner and losers this election cycle.

Interesting article in the Washington Post, way down in the article it mentions that the generic polls is now 45 – 51 in favour of the Democrats. It should be noted that the article gives the impression that the election is a done deal, I would expect more from the Washington Post.

Here comes VIEWS prediction on House Seats. I will use the following guides, Democratic Pick Up, and 50/50. As it is about how many seats the Democrats can pick up to take the House, I will look at these and any seats they might have at risk. As a guide I have used the Seats suggested by RCP.

DPU

Arizona 8
Pennsylvania 10
Colorado 7
Ohio 18
New York 24

50/50 Personal View

Texas 22 ( R Hold )
Florida 16 ( R Hold)
Indiana 8
Pennsylvania 7
Iowa 1
North Carolina 11 (R Hold )
New Mexico 1

The Above are from RCP list of leaning Democrat / 12, Views has DPU 5 in the Bag, in the 50/50 Range I have the Republicans holding the Delay and Foley Seat, that places 4 in the 50/50 range.

The next section is based on the Seats that RCP places in the 50/50 range.


DPU

Ohio 15
Connecticut 4

50/50 PV

Indiana 2 ( R Hold )
Pennsylvania 6
New York 26 (R Hold)
Indiana 9 (R Hold)
Florida 13 ( R Hold)
Connecticut 5
Illinois 6
Minnesota 6 ( R Hold)
New York 20
Ohio 1 ( R Hold)
New Hampshire 2 ( R H)
Arizona 5 ( R H)

Overall Views has the Democratic Pick up at 7 in the bag. The Republicans holding 8 by a slight margin and in the 50/50 margin, 4 Seats. This would give the Democrats 11 Seats, 4 short of Control in the House. If you add the Four seats left from above, that would give them a control.

On the RCP there are two Democratic Seats that are in the 50/50 range: Views sees the following going to the Republicans, Georgia 12,

Thus if you follow the political polls, the Democrats are heading for a wave a new seats in Congress, VIEWS has a different view, here goes, the Republicans hold both Champers. If you are a Republican in the seats I have discussed could you please VOTE for the Republican Candidate or else Views will have to say Bill Clinton was a great President. And that would be beyond a nightmare for this political geek, so VOTE and VOTE Republican.

Congressional Mid Term Elections 2006

An interesting article on why Bush might be confident for the Mid Terms Elections, Click here for The Allen Report.

If one thing is more fun for political geeks than future elections is looking at past elections and why candidates lost, interesting article on the latest John Kerry foul up, explains why he lost in 2004, Click here for CNN Article. The article states the following, ‘ Republicans unleashed a firestorm of criticism Tuesday against Sen. John Kerry after the Vietnam veteran told college students they'd "get stuck in Iraq" if they didn't work hard in school. ’ The Article states that Kerry had wanted to say something else, another flip flop.

Interesting Article in the Congressional Quarterly on the Mid Term Elections, the article states the following, ‘ The growing probability that the Democrats will win control of the House on Nov. 7, and still have a chance at the taller order of capturing the Senate as well, has hardly caught the political class by surprise. ’ Click here for full Article.


An article in the Washington Times on the expectations game for the Mid Term Elections, Click here for Full Article.

If you only read one Article, VIEWS would recommend this article in the Washington Post, while VIEWS might not agree on their numbers, they are worth a look and gives the political geek something to ponder, Click here for Article.

An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal on the recent development of early voting, the article states the following, ‘ Republicans say they have some good news in early-voting statistics that suggest their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races. ’ Click here for full Article.



Well the season for polls has arrived; we have polls for the same House Seat, which show different, and opposite results that cover the same days. Thus over the next few days VIEWS before the election is going to smell the Coffee and let his political gut lead him to make his final predictions for the Mid Terms. Views will make his prediction on the Monday before the election, and should he be wrong by a large margin he will write in his next blog that President Bill Clinton was a great President. As Views has no wish for this great calamity he will try to give an honest and objective opinion based on his reading of the political environment and the dreaded political Polls.