Gallup: Likely Voters: This Poll of three different outcomes, has a very close race, Obama 49% - McCain 47%. If this was the state of the race before November Vote then it could be postulated that McCain would win the Presidency. This would take in to consideration what happened in New Hampshire, Obama was well ahead in double digits but still lost to Hillary Clinton. But Gallup has three different versions of this Poll, lets look at the Likely Voters that includes first time voters and those from a ethnic minority. As Obama is a rock star in these groups, Gallup has the following result, Obama 51% - McCain 45%. Its getting over that 50% that counts at the end of the day, Bill Clinton never got over 50% in either Presidential Election. Thus with the rock star status of Obama it could be argued that the expanded likely voter is closer to the truth. On another matter, saw McCain and Obama at a Charity Dinner last night, McCain was better on the humour, when Obama gets elected he needs to hire the writers for McCain, humour is not a Obama strong point.
Rasmussen: Reports that Obama has a four point lead, if one takes in to consideration Gallup LV1, in which Obama has a two point lead and the Rasmussen Poll that has four points then Obama is ahead at about three points. The Rasmussen Poll found the following, Obama 50% - McCain 46%. The academic fun of election night will be to see who gets right with a few percent points, it helps to see who is on the ball. Also it will help the pollsters, they will now know which questions to ask to see if the voters are telling them the truth.
IBD/TIPP: Reports a very close race, Obama 45% - McCain 42%. It has been noted by IBD and others that this poll was very close to the actual result in 2004. An interesting figure is those that state they haven't made their mind up yet, that stands at whopping 13%. Lets postulate that these voters are going to vote for Senator McCain but don't want to tell the pollster why, one could guess, one reason being the Bradley Effect just for some but one reason. Lets see if that 13% make their mind up before November 4th. Also lets see the prediction before the election.*
* The Latest IBD/TIPP: This shows that Obama has a five percent lead ( if you round the percent up ) The New Poll finds the following, Obama 46% - McCain 41%. What is interesting is that those that have not made their mind up stands at 14%. One should never make a prediction but one could postulate a Obama win in the following manner, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. This if it happened would be a lot closer but the six percent win would fall in to the average of the polls.
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